NaughtyPines

THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, OIH, XOP, GDXJ, EWZ, VIX

NASDAQ:ADBE   ADOBE SYSTEMS INCORPORATED - COMMON STOCK
With the VIX             dropping hard below 15, some of the juice has poured out of the cup ... . Even so, there remain a few plays in the market.

ADBE             announces earnings on the 15th (Thursday) after market close. The volatility metrics don't quite meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play (56/32), but the March 23rd 210/323.5 short strangle is paying 3.80 at the mid with that setup's defined risk counterpart, the 205/210/232.5/237.5 iron condor, paying 1.69, just a smidge over one-third the width of the wings. These are off hours quotes, so neither of these may look as attractive during regular market hours when things tighten up. Nevertheless, worth keeping an eyeball on.

The remainder of earnings announcements on tap for next week either involve poor liquidity underlyings or have implied volatility in the lower half of their 52-week range, making them singularly unattractive for the standard play.

In the exchange-traded fund neck of the woods, OIH             and XOP             retain fairly decent background implied volatility at 31, as does the junior gold             miners fund, GDXJ             . My preference is to pull the trigger on these underlyings directionally. With GDXJ             , I would like slightly lower (sub-30 would be great). A touch of caution is warranted, however, since there is a bit of divergence between gold             spot prices and both GDX             and GDXJ             , implying that if gold             goes lower here (it's got room), the miners will weaken even further, so trade these small in the event that support terms out to be meaningless (i.e., you're dead ass wrong as to direction).

As far as "the Brazilian" ( EWZ             ) is concerned, the April 20th 43/49 (40 days until expiry) short strangle is paying 1.25 at the mid; it isn't hugely compelling, but it's a sub-$50 underlying after all. If you're going to pull the trigger on that setup, however, I'd do it soon, since we're quickly getting outside the 45-day sweet spot.

VIX             futures term structure has finally returned to a modest degree of normalcy, with contracts in contango front to back. I'm still waiting for a few UVXY             short call verts to pull off here that I put on in the hot and heavy of early Feb, so am going to hand sit until I'm able to quit sweating over those. The forecast, however, is for contango erosion/beta slippage to resume (it already has) in UVXY             and VXX             , implying that they will continue to pretty much go down from here over time (naturally, in the absence of another pop).
ZH 简体中文
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
HE עברית
首页 股票筛选器 外汇筛选器 加密货币筛选器 财经日历 如何运作 图表功能 网站规则 版主 网站 & 经纪商解决方案 插件 图表库 功能请求 博客 & 新闻 常见问题 帮助 & 维基 Twitter
概述 个人资料设置 账号和账单 我的支持通知 联系支持 已发表观点 粉丝 正在关注 私人消息 聊天 退出