Where are we now with ASX200 SPI

Sellers are looking tired @ 5813 area, which I expect to be breached. I don't doubt they will come back in to sell another decent rally. So I think there is more downside to go. That will also be driven by what happens to the DOW and I have not done any analysis on that today.

If 5813 holds, I expect institutional traders will break that level to trip amateur traders before taking off to the upside. That's IF this level holds. I have no idea and anyone who makes predictions is simply guessing. That's why if you're looking to buy near a bottom you must wait for confirmation of order-flow, price action and volume. No indicator or trend line alone will tell you this. IMHO they never will.

So I would sit tight, look for opportunities to short a rally for now. BTW I am not offering this as investment advice, simply education. Stay tuned. I am on twitter as well if you want to follow me. I post more regularly there. Best to your trading!

评论:

We are not out of the woods yet to see a clear signal for an upside buy. You could try your hand at trading 5 min charts with VWAP charts if you can get the hang of it.

What worries me is that some other major indexes like the DAX and Nikkei look pretty bad right now. The recent sell off would have had some severe psychological effect on a lot of investors. This makes any recovery a longer term one IMHO.

If you want a clearer picture of the underlying strength of the ASX200, look at the big 4 banks, RIO, BHP, and the Iron Ore futures prices. If they look more solid then we can look to a more positive outcome for the SPI200.

So keep watching and see if we get some clear confirmation.

Good Trading!