Sellers are looking tired @ 5813 area, which I expect to be breached. I don't doubt they will come back in to sell another decent rally. So I think there is more downside to go. That will also be driven by what happens to the DOW and I have not done any analysis on that today.
If 5813 holds, I expect institutional traders will break that level to trip amateur traders before taking off to the upside. That's IF this level holds. I have no idea and anyone who makes predictions is simply guessing. That's why if you're looking to buy near a bottom you must wait for confirmation of order-flow, price action and volume. No indicator or trend line alone will tell you this. IMHO they never will.
So I would sit tight, look for opportunities to short a rally for now. BTW I am not offering this as investment advice, simply education. Stay tuned. I am on twitter as well if you want to follow me. I post more regularly there. Best to your trading!
评论
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We are not out of the woods yet to see a clear signal for an upside buy. You could try your hand at trading 5 min charts with VWAP charts if you can get the hang of it.
What worries me is that some other major indexes like the DAX and Nikkei look pretty bad right now. The recent sell off would have had some severe psychological effect on a lot of investors. This makes any recovery a longer term one IMHO.
If you want a clearer picture of the underlying strength of the ASX200, look at the big 4 banks, RIO, BHP, and the Iron Ore futures prices. If they look more solid then we can look to a more positive outcome for the SPI200.
So keep watching and see if we get some clear confirmation.
How does the AUS 200 index relate to the ASX 200? ASX 200 is up 57 from open right now (based on asx.com), AUS 200 is down 40 from 10am (ASX open, AEDT). Does one lead/lag the other?
patricktapper
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@dazweeja, the AUS200 is a derivative of the ASX All ordinaries top 200 companies by market capitalisation - it's official ticker is XJO. The AUS200 and ASX200 are the same thing - they can be the same instrument from different brokers. Generally they track the XJO pretty well. AUS200 are not shares, they are CFD's. If you want to find out more there is lots of stuff searchable on google. I don't trade the AUS200, I trade the SPI, which is a futures contract offered by the ASX.
dazweeja
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@patricktapper, thanks for that. I thought so but I just don't understand where the divergence comes from. I put a buy on AUS200 because I assumed the ASX would go this morning. It did - it's up 1.1% right now. But the AUS200 is down 0.22%.
patricktapper
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@dazweeja, that’s the difference in broker feeds. Some brokers data is less than good while there are ones that run their index pretty close to the XJO. I’d have a look and do a comparison. You need a broker fees that is accurate as possible
santoshoflycettavenue
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@patricktapper, I am struggling to get a chart up for SPI (futures) on tradingview - could you please help? also there could be Jul exp, Aug exp and continuous futures.. is there a way to select a particular one on tradingview? Or in other words, what is the ticker on tradingview for SPI? I have spent quite a bit of time without success..
sohal_07
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I believe its a u-turn time now...
patricktapper
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@sohal_07, It could be. It depends what type of trader you are. If you bought it first thing this morning, you'd be down 40 points already. I would only trade it on a short term basis for now while looking at what the longer term holds. It won't by any means go straight back up and I do expect some more volatility.