Currently price is at the bottom of a so it could go long for another few months but this idea will still be valid since the next move down could be the one that breaks out short.
How there are plenty of traders who will quote the fundamental reasons why this is not going to happen but in my experience price follows wave principles regardless of fundamentals. I find that when price moves in a certain direction fundamentalists make the news fit the move rather than the other way round.
I'll follow this pair over the next year on all timescales and post my analysis. Let's see where it goes and hopefully we'll learn a lot along the way.
Follow for updates and explanations of price movement
I welcome questions