AUDUSD - Long. 4H Analysis

Pretty straightforward analysis here. Expecting continued upward movement to test the critical zone. As we hit 0.74600, I expect a 50% fib retracement, and another march back to the critical zone. If a trade develops, I will update this idea with exact targets and stop loss.

Whether or not AUDUSD breaks past this key level will depend on fundamental data coming out over the next week. On Tuesday, the RBA will come out with a rate statement, and later with GDP q/q. Weak NFP data and FOMC looming on the horizon have me bearish on the USD currently.

The reason I am going to the 4HR timeframe for this pair is because if I do buy AUDUSD, I do not want to hold my trade past Wednesday. The complete trade setup can easily develop itself over a 1-2 day period. We have general elections in the UK on Thursday, which will be a great day to be trading!

评论:

Price is so far respecting analysis and has come close to the critical zone. A key feature about critical zones is that they are not defined by very rigid borders. Support/resistance zones are flexible and can change a bit over time.

Currently waiting for either continued retracement or another test upward and deeper into the zone. We are getting closer to a trade signal forming!

评论:

Price has made a volatile move upward and through the critical zone, and then gone on to re-test it and has been rejected. Bullish bias for the short-term has been confirmed. Waiting for a pullback to enter long.

交易开始:

Entered long on AUDUSD off a pullback on the 15minute chart at 0.74825. Stop loss is a few pips into the critical zone at 0.74685 and the first target is 0.75040. Second target is 0.75350 based off of previous swing points on the daily chart.

交易结束：到达止损:

Trade built nice momentum throughout the day, but sharply reversed on poor economic data out of Australia. Next key piece of news is rate statement from the RBA coming shortly.