@phoe68, That depends on the trader, if price shows weakness at the blue trendline this means a long could be taken, however it is a counter trend trade
and you do not have alot of upside room (yellow upper trendline). The bottom of the large channel with thin black lines would be an extended target where it is much better to go long.
I have made an analysis for daily timeframe for long trade:
phoe68
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@dinnersticks, thank you for your advice, from the chart i would say you mean 0.728 level, so 0.733 is definately not a long term bottom?
dinnersticks
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@phoe68, It is my understanding that 0.733 is not the bottom, I am looking at 0.730 if you click the chart you will be linked to its idea page where I give a small explanation.
My advice to you is to always come up with a rational reason why price would reverse at a specific point, and when price gets there ask that question again. Try to use
an objective judgement of the market.
phoe68
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@dinnersticks, hi dinnersticks, I was thinking US dollars index will go up a bit to 100.2; in that case from current level, each US dollar equals to one AUDUSD pip so it should bottom around 0.7285. How does that sound?
dinnersticks
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@phoe68, are you detracting the pips DXY would gain if it hits 100.2 off AUDUSD? I have no experience with such correlation but I believe its not that easy since the correlation is never 100%.
I did checkout DXY though and 100.2 does seem like an interesting price level, not saying it will get there but if it does look for a short setup. tradingview.com/chart/5ftgtr01/
As for AUDUSD, 88.6% fib can be found at 0.7227 which is close to 0.7285 which you are mentioning. Care to enlighten me on your DXY/AUDUSD correlation?
dinnersticks
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@phoe68, sorry its actually not close to 88.6 fib but spot on with the 78.6, as for now I believe 88.6 is more likely as a pattern would complete there.
phoe68
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@dinnersticks, 0.7227 is 250 pips from current level..... is it that easy to get there......
phoe68
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Sorry, 150 pips
phoe68
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@dinnersticks, also a bottom should not break the previous low as thats where the COST was for making a rally, i estimate the bottom is around 0.7275 and 0.7295..... and that would be the bottom for these future 3 years