2017 Q2 Summary
Following a breakout of the bottom wedge boundary at the beginning of the second quarter, the Australian Dollar was trading sideways in the 0.7450/0.7600 area. This lack of momentum was shifted in May when the Antipodean currency resumed a clear downtrend. This motion revealed the formation of an intermediate channel down in force since early February. Subsequently, June began with the Aussie recovering some ground against its American counterpart up to 0.7621 and retracing slightly. The 20-, 100– and 200-day SMAs provided strong support mid-June, suggesting that the same situation may likewise occur next time the price reaches the given level.
2017 Q3 Outlook
The Aussie’s movement in the second quarter demonstrates a formation of another rising wedge. The given pattern has provided two confirmations in each side; however, more tests of both boundaries should still be needed in order to determine the validity of this pattern. Technical indicators remain bullish, thus suggesting that there is still some upside potential for the Aussie to realise in the upcoming weeks. The upper limit may be set circa 0.7710/20 where the upper boundary of the senior wedge is located. In the longer term, however, downside momentum is likely to prevail for the following month at least, thus leading the rate towards the bottom boundary of the new wedge pattern in the 0.7450/0.7500 area. By and large, the Aussie remains relatively vulnerable to changes in commodity prices. In times of high volatility, it should respond accordingly. In addition, the given exchange rate may likewise be influenced by sluggish data on the Australian economy, thus risking to put downward pressure on the currency. On the other hand, political uncertainties in the US may drive the Greenback lower, thus sending this pair for a surge.
Following a breakout of the bottom wedge boundary at the beginning of the second quarter, the Australian Dollar was trading sideways in the 0.7450/0.7600 area. This lack of momentum was shifted in May when the Antipodean currency resumed a clear downtrend. This motion revealed the formation of an intermediate channel down in force since early February. Subsequently, June began with the Aussie recovering some ground against its American counterpart up to 0.7621 and retracing slightly. The 20-, 100– and 200-day SMAs provided strong support mid-June, suggesting that the same situation may likewise occur next time the price reaches the given level.
2017 Q3 Outlook
The Aussie’s movement in the second quarter demonstrates a formation of another rising wedge. The given pattern has provided two confirmations in each side; however, more tests of both boundaries should still be needed in order to determine the validity of this pattern. Technical indicators remain bullish, thus suggesting that there is still some upside potential for the Aussie to realise in the upcoming weeks. The upper limit may be set circa 0.7710/20 where the upper boundary of the senior wedge is located. In the longer term, however, downside momentum is likely to prevail for the following month at least, thus leading the rate towards the bottom boundary of the new wedge pattern in the 0.7450/0.7500 area. By and large, the Aussie remains relatively vulnerable to changes in commodity prices. In times of high volatility, it should respond accordingly. In addition, the given exchange rate may likewise be influenced by sluggish data on the Australian economy, thus risking to put downward pressure on the currency. On the other hand, political uncertainties in the US may drive the Greenback lower, thus sending this pair for a surge.
