Maybe AUDUSD can rally even while DXY is moving up...I think it's possible that Trump's border wall could boost iron ore prices indirectly, thus giving AUDUSD the push it needs to detach from the now 11 month mode at 0.75248. If we don't retest this level during February, we could expect a sharp rally towards 0.82787 in the long term.
Sentiment is extremely negative for AUDUSD, which doesn't make any sense, given the relative strength in this pair, and the current daily uptrend, as well as the bullish signals in multiple timeframes, copper's strength, the relentless iron/steel rally, and Australia's fundamentals, both regarding GDP growth, as well as rate differential against other currencies, weighing in political risk, and also demographics. It's a bit hard to justify shorting it, so, let's try going long once more. The daily offers a tight stop at 0.75827, but if you want, you can just use the monthly stop at 0.75248 for now.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
PS: As a reminder, I'll attach the monthly copper chart, I think the lag in AUD against iron ore and copper can resolve in a violent breakout in this currency pair, effectively closing the spread with these commodities they export.
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Rings a bell?
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Acting strong, hold.
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One more day for the uptrend signal, it gets critical here. The do or die moment is near...if we don't break above the rate cut top here, and make a solid daily LOW above, we're screwed. If we do, we need to break the top of the election high, in the same manner, and then break above the highest daily low since AUDUSD bottomed. That will be a massive feat and would warrant 'buying like CRAZY'.
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Added a long here:
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If we hold here for 1-2 days, we can be ready to break out and go higher once again.
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AUDUSD is extremely promising, let's cross our fingers and wait for the monthly close
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Great progress so far. I will add if we get a significant enough setback, for now, holding.
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Potentially this is the breakout that resumes the strong rally.
My only problem with AUD at this current area. It could head down for a pull back before breaking up. I do think AUD is going higher this year. Currently I see a pull back first.
IvanLabrie
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@RobbyWestHouston, we're facing a huge resistance here, it really has to break above some of these levels and hold, to go higher. Check the monthly level, if we don't retest that by the close of Feb, we have big odds of a monthly rally a la copper.
TFrank_1
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IvanLabrie
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@TPittard, Hi, I don't really use those patterns. I disagree with them almost 98% of the time. I think they are not good while things trend.