QUICK ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Updating Wave Count + Recent Trades

FX:AUDUSD   澳元/美元
1020 4
I had posted 2 recent trades on this pair:
1. TRADE: AUDUSD: BUY@0.69170 LONG On Shark + Cypher 2. TRADE: AUDUSD: BUY@0.69554 Goldilocks Reversal + .786 Trade
For those that also took these trades, you are very much in the money right now but now that prices are approaching the targets, what to expect? First, as you will notice now that I have put both trades on the same chart, both the shark and the bat patterns which helped trigger the trades finish almost right on top of each other and more importantly, right AT or NEAR the upper trend line of an expanding triangle pattern (keep reading to find out more on this expanding triangle pattern ). When these patterns complete, that point should mark the D point of the expanding triangle and also the end of wave 4 of the finishing wave V of the wave ( III ) of the major trend. I've also updated the subwave count of the wave 4.

4HR CHART - Adjusted Wave Count Showing Path Of Wave ( III )
In several previous analysis I did on this pair, I had assumed that the recent lows this pair put in before rallying recently were the ending of the wave ( III ) of the MAJOR TREND. Well, in doing some re-analysis, I have now come to the conclusion that the wave ( III ) may NOT be done! How is that you say when almost EVERYBODY is calling for a MAJOR CHANGE IN TREND happening right now? Even I had hinted at that possibility BUT I also said that the MAJOR TREND DOWN was NOT done! I still see a wave (V) of the major trend yet to come and finishing down by the 60 cents level.

Anyway, let me get to explaining what I am showing here. My new wave count shows that wave ( III ) of the major trend isn't done and that we are now in the wave 4 of the wave V of that wave ( III ). The wave V of wave ( III ) seems to be finishing in an expanding triangle pattern . This is common in wave 5's. I've marked out that POTENTIAL expanding triangle in blue lines. Also, the wave count for this wave V falls nicely right along the confines of that expanding triangle. I've also labeled the triangle using the more traditional ABCDE. Given how very oversold this market has been on the DAILY basis, I am also seeing that it is a good possibility that the wave 5 of V may end in a truncated wave 5 retesting the recent lows before rallying to start the wave (IV) of the major trend. This wave (IV) should fulfill the Wolfe Wave pattern I've also pointed out in my previous analysis (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Is Wave 3 Done? If So, Where Will Wave 4 Go?").

When the either pattern completes, I'll be looking to close all of my LONG positions and will be looking to go SHORT playing that expanding triangle for a possible quick wave 5 down that will retest the 69 cents area and the recent lows. I'll be looking for a truncated wave 5 here as I think the 69 cents level will hold but I'll deal with it when that time comes.
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I've finally read enough to understand some 70% of your analysis :)
good analysis, espcially the patterns
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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