TheShortLife
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AUDUSD short the pullback

FX:AUDUSD   澳元/美元
AUDUSD             is not done bottoming out - short term is bullish due exhaustive selling, but longer term on a weekly basis, the AU has a much better support area to consider going long (shown below in monthly).

Highlighted red box below will act as a higher probability of success restest area. In other words, I would place greater trust in a successful throwback test of the descending monthly resistance line over a successful throwback to the shorter term cyan triangle.
评论: Here we go, 1 minute channel break would be entry time.
评论: New support structure on AU where price is resting from the channel breakdown... don't think it will hold, but if it does, just add short on channel throwback test,
评论:
评论: Still going good, rejection of throwback of this support line too.
评论: Taking its time but nothing that has invalidated the setup thus far. We have a lower high being made, so buyers are being exhausted or short sellers are giving up holding on and covering.

评论: "or short sellers are giving up holding on and covering. " - means there are less short sellers left to cover than before, meaning weak hands are done being shaken out before the real move down happens without those short sellers who couldn't take it anymore
评论: Two charts to share - first is 1 min with a 200 ma where it is acting as resistance.


Second is 1 hour with 200 ma acting as support.
评论: AU catching bid, but price popped right into 3 resistances:
1 - former support of major channel
2 - outside upper bollinger band 15 min
3 - intermediary resistance line (red line)
评论:
评论: This is where my eyes are peeled now - former resistance of channel might act as support. I think the probability is likely that price will burst down through, but never the less, the cyan circle is where I expect shorts to cover and some longs to risk a scalp - before continuation down that is!
评论: Have to hedge here, channel support. Dump hedge once price breaks down of the channel (and it will).

评论: Forgot to mention, there are two bullish reasons:
1 - Channel support (from above)
2 - 15 min price outside lower bollinger band and DXY exhausting on 15 min upper bollinger band

See this chart for (2)


DXY Exhaust Possible
评论: Zoomed out a bit, should keep going down.
Thanks for the updates
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