In about 3-4 hours, the Reserve Bank of Australia brings their latest round of monetary policy to the market with their rate announcement. The expectation is for the rate to hold steady.
We don't know how the market is going to react so let's establish a game plan prior to the release. Checking in with the Elliott Wave analysis, it appears as though a longer term upward correction may have ended on April 20. If this is the wave structure, then we can look for the price to eventually pursue new lows (Daily chart).
In the shorter term, it appears as though an impulsive move has carved out to the downside. Once this move is partially corrected, we can look for another spurt lower.
2 areas of potential resistance include 7390-7410 and near 7575. We will watch sentiment and our intraday momentum indicator to see if momentum swings to the downside at these levels.
Live trader positioning (sentiment) is currently sitting at +1.29. If this number drifts higher as these support zones are reached, then that shift in sentiment could foreshadow some weakness in the exchange rate.
Another tool that can help you determine intraday shifting momentum is the Grid Sight Indicator. This is a big data indicator that seeks out price patterns in the past that are similar to the one on the chart. It compares those patterns to determine how often prices moved up a few pips or down a few pips.
I'm looking at AUDUSD 'm3' and it shows 218 matching patterns. Those figures will change over time, but my point is that if we see volatile swings after the RBA announcement, check out this indicator about 15-30 AFTER the news is released to see if it finds similar patterns of reversals or continuations.
Good luck!
We don't know how the market is going to react so let's establish a game plan prior to the release. Checking in with the Elliott Wave analysis, it appears as though a longer term upward correction may have ended on April 20. If this is the wave structure, then we can look for the price to eventually pursue new lows (Daily chart).
In the shorter term, it appears as though an impulsive move has carved out to the downside. Once this move is partially corrected, we can look for another spurt lower.
2 areas of potential resistance include 7390-7410 and near 7575. We will watch sentiment and our intraday momentum indicator to see if momentum swings to the downside at these levels.
Live trader positioning (sentiment) is currently sitting at +1.29. If this number drifts higher as these support zones are reached, then that shift in sentiment could foreshadow some weakness in the exchange rate.
Another tool that can help you determine intraday shifting momentum is the Grid Sight Indicator. This is a big data indicator that seeks out price patterns in the past that are similar to the one on the chart. It compares those patterns to determine how often prices moved up a few pips or down a few pips.
I'm looking at AUDUSD 'm3' and it shows 218 matching patterns. Those figures will change over time, but my point is that if we see volatile swings after the RBA announcement, check out this indicator about 15-30 AFTER the news is released to see if it finds similar patterns of reversals or continuations.
Good luck!
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www.seethewaves.com - A school to learn how to read charts & Elliott Wave Theory.
EW Express - bit.ly/elliottwaveexpress
