AUDUSD: Analysis, Bearish Crab & Why You Should be Looking DOWN

FX:AUDUSD   澳元/美元
287 3
They don't call Australia the "Land Down Under" for nothing! The Aussie is living up to it's slogan! Ok, I'm not bashing Australia. It's a beautiful country for sure. But the Aussie is looking bearish long term. I expect for at least the rest of this year. But in the meantime, let's see what's happening now. On the main chart above, I've placed a bearish crab pattern. However, in order for the pattern to complete and actually be a crab , it's gonna need to overcome some recent significant SR zone. If it does complete, and that is a BIG if, I would expect that prices will come straight back down through the zone and resume the major downtrend. For now, I expect prices are heading up back to retest the SR Zone as per the chart

Now why am I so bearish on the Aussie?

On this monthly chart, you can see a very large crab pattern at play. The crab D point happens to terminate down at 62 cents which is at a previous major SR structure level. At that level, look left and you will also see MAJOR SR structure. According to my wave counts, aussie has been in a large wave ( III ) for awhile now that is nearing it's end. And I suspect it will end somewhere within this major SR structure zone between 70 cents and 62 cents.

Weekly Chart

Daily Chart

Prices are heading up in a retracement towards the recent SR levels. It will retest that zone. Can't know if it will pass back up through the SR Zone to complete the crab pattern but I will be watching. For now, I am in a small LONG position to capture some short-term pips based on the H&S pattern breach, bullish divergence and expectancy of the SR Zone retest. When prices reach that area, I will close any LONG positions and start looking for reasons to enter short again for possible STRONG move down from there. If prices do penetrate the SR Zone and complete the bear crab , I will definitely look to enter short at that point.

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Good analysis.
hi.. shall i enter now? or on 13th monday?
I'm not making any trade calls here. Only giving my own point of view of what I see is happening. hopefully , it might help you and others to decide for yourself what to do. That's my intention is just to help. I clearly explained what I am personally am doing right now and going to do. But that's just me. My risk tolerance and yours are not the same I would think. So your trading plan should be different from mine. I'm sorry if what I say doesn't help you much. Good luck!
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