Once in a while I like to take a look at the previous Bitcoin cycles and put them next to each other on one chart. In this analysis I measure one cycle from bottom to top, not from halving.
You can find my previous cycle comparison here:
When looking at the cycle comparison, there are several interesting things that you can deduce from this graph. 1) The cycles are getting less intense. The difference between the top and the low is relatively decreasing, making each cycle less explosive than the previous. 2) The cycles are getting longer. With each new cycle, it takes longer to reach the top of the cycle. "Time is your friend" has never been more fitting.
Now that Bitcoin has seen a sell-off for three weeks in a row, it's logical to see that the amount of overall bearishness in the market has increased. However, I don't agree with the notion that the bull-cycle is over and that we're going back to 10k. Instead, I'm expecting that we're going to see a new all-time-high in Q4-2021. Q4 has historically been the best quarter for BTC.
I arrive at this conclusion by looking at the chart above. We are simply too early in the cycle to have topped already. In addition, BTC didn't even come close to the blue line (I'm making the assumption it should). The blue line connects the previous cycle highs with each other and has been almost spot-on predicting the previous cycle top.
I'm expecting a bull-cycle top between 130k and 200k, somewhere in the first half of 2022. This takes in to account that the current cycle will see less growth than the previous cycles, and that the cycle will take longer from bottom to top.
Click on the chart below to see a more speculative top prediction, which is based on logarithmic Fibonacci extensions. This analysis puts the top at ~215k. More speculative, but it gives an interesting perspective nevertheless.
Overall, it's still very plausible that BTC can go down in the near term. However, this analysis will still hold if we see a couple more bearish weeks.
In case you wish to add something constructive to the discussion, please share your charts below. Where do you think Bitcoin will be in 6 months?
We can expect an ETF by the end of the year (some say october by SEC) and more countries massively adopting bitcoin as legal tender (other countries in LATAM and why not some african ones too). These 2 factors open the doors for a massive amount of money and ADOPTION. I feel there is a psychological target of 100K by eoy so I expect it will NOT be the case, either higher (115-120k) or lower (75-87k). The amount of BTC on exchanges is very very low, so the sentiment (of whales) is extremely bullish whatever news or big drama is published.
@PlatanoinaPorsche glad I can be of help. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
MMBTtrader
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great job
TradingShot
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This is a replicated analysis from the work I did last May and I have been doing for over 3 years of the Cycles comparison in that way. So as I am sure you can imagine, I can't disagree with you.
davoondaghib
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DEC 2021-Jan 2022 we will see 79K for bitcoin, agree?
InkyGrip
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impeccable analysis! ๐ฆ๐งจ
kennysvg
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I would say max 30k in 6 months. In fact I'm expecting a slow bleed over the coming months across most markets and not a new ATH for btc any time soon. I think many people have realized there is no reason on planet earth for bitcoin's price to be so high, all the fomo that pumped the price slowly coming back to reality.
FieryTrading
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@kennysvg, could you support your statement with data and/or charts? You could make the same argument for a large part of the stock market as well. Bitcoin has been deemed "overvalued" by some since its inception, and look where we are now.