BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
266 10 5
This is how I see Bitcoin             .

Wave Count

Pre-exchange trading starting in 2009, e.g. 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC             and other ancient transactions, are considered to be part of a separate Elliott wave or as being completely negligible so as not to affect current wave count.

Bitcoin             is currently approaching the conclusion of the final wave of this first, large cycle, making the correction Sub-Wave 4 of 5. After completion a large and prolonged pullback in price is feasible.

Bitcoin GoldRushes

There have been until now three major bull run periods: in 2011, 2013 and 2017. The 2017 cycle is still ongoing. Each gold             rush comprises of three peaks in a similar formation as the head and shoulders trading pattern. The major bull run corresponds to the ascent of the middle peak.

Wave Bottom

The 0.01 USD bottom on 4 October 2010 is a very special point for the current Elliott wave . It is possible to draw a line from this point precisely to the price dump one week prior to the first two major bull runs. This line does not cut the through the preceding price action at all and is therefore to be considered as a critical support or trendline . The full coordinates of the current trendline are unknown, the line shown in the charts is the best guess estimate with respect to timeliness.

After the Gold             Rush
After the peak there will be another failed peak or bull trap. This will be fairly large, but ultimately signal the start of a longer or price-wise severe bear market for Bitcoin             as it enters a corrective wave. This bear cycle is indicated by the loss of the critical support or yellow trendline as seen in the previous two gold             rush cycles.

My Assertion
Wherever this critical support line is, the price will touch it possible around 7 to 10 days before the start of the major bull run. Depending on the exact coordinates of this support, this may take place in 2018 or 2019. Due to the three peak pattern of previous gold             rushes, I believe this will happen in 2018. It is not possible to say whether the price will crash down immediately, or descend gently or move sideways slowly. A sizeable candle shadow on the weekly chart that allows a trendline to be draw to the wave bottom without cutting the preceding price action is a candidate and a good point to buy more Bitcoin             .

* This assumes the three peak formation holds.
** Gold             miners, including the digital variety, are inherently mad and foolish so do not trust any of them.
@elshanti, That's a pretty scary possibility. I look a lot at Bitcoin Cash and often get the predictions wrong because I have been overly bullish, but I think there is reason to believe it will bottom in the coming days and the accumulate there for a month. It will also break out in this time. If this is the case Bitcoin will also bottom at the same time, but it may bounce hard instead (BCH isn't really a bouncer).
BarclayJames BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, Of course it might lose support of the channel altogether and then that would be an obvious signal for prolonged market correction.
Great minds think alike !! ..How about this one ? I have this idea since december crash..and I insist that btc should AT LEAST test the channel ! if would not sink at its bottom level !
@elshanti, Yes, I definitely agree we are going to meet that channel again at some point. Looking at that chart we have already retested it though in July and I think and from the scale of the December peak I wonder if we have now reached the end of a 5-wave cycle for bitcoin. This could mean that our next retest will fail unfortunately.

However at the same scale Litecoin is at the end of wave 3 and Ethereum wave 1, but decoupling from BTC seems unlikely??

By the way I really like you charts, they've been very inspirational. I only started analysis since autumn last year ;)
g20 in 10 days ;-)
@qdoc, Bilderberg 7 - 10 June.
qdoc PRO BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, bilderberg psy op. Nah g20 significant jahnny. That should be a turning point not trading advice tra la la.
@qdoc, If true, then hard drop it is then.
qdoc PRO BarclayJames
@BarclayJames, i think other way but time will tell
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