BTC.D Compression at Support — Preparing for Next Leg

Bitcoin Dominance is sitting on one of the most important macro support levels of the last 2–3 years. The orange trendline on this chart has been touched 5+ times since 2023 and has acted as a major structural support throughout the entire bull cycle.

Now, BTC.D is testing this line again — and the next move will determine whether we get another leg of BTC dominance or the start of a real altcoin season.

🔶 1. BTC.D at Macro Support

Dominance is currently resting right on the long-term ascending trendline.
This line has held through every major market rotation so far — making this a critical decision point.

A clean break below it would flip the whole structure.

📉 2. Momentum Is Weakening

Several indicators point to pressure on dominance:

RSI rolling over from mid-high levels

MACD losing momentum on the 3D

Lower highs forming since the 65.9% top

This suggests the market is shifting away from a BTC-only move.

💡 3. BTC Relief Rally Will Decide Everything

Bitcoin looks due for a relief rally, but how BTC moves is crucial:

If BTC pumps violently → dominance spikes → alts bleed
(typical liquidity vacuum)

If BTC rallies steadily and cleanly → dominance breaks → alts gain strength
This is the setup for a classic alt rotation.

If BTC goes sideways afterward → dominance collapses → full alt season triggers

This is the most bullish scenario for altcoins.

🚀 4. What Happens If the Orange Trendline Breaks?

A confirmed breakdown below 58.8%–59% on the 3D/weekly would likely spark:

ETH outperformance

SOL and high-beta L1s exploding

L2 ecosystems taking off (BASE / OP / ARB)

Microcaps accelerating aggressively

This would be a true altcoin season, not the small rotations we’ve seen recently.

📈 5. Probability Outlook

BTC relief rally: 80%

BTC.D breakdown: ~60%

Full alt cycle: 50%

Major alt season (2021-style): ~30%

Dominance is weakening, but confirmation requires a clean close under support.

🎯 Summary

BTC.D is at a decisive macro level.
A breakdown of the orange trendline would open the door to a broad altcoin rally, while a bounce keeps Bitcoin in control.

This is the moment to watch for rotation signals.