Elliott Wave & the Bitcoin Fork

This is a blend of Bitfinex and Bitstamp to smooth out some of the extreme candle wicks. Blending the two exchanges, BTC price did not make a new low for the year with the Bitcoin XT release.

The fork forces a vote to reach consensus on the future of Bitcoin . I believe this is a healthy market mechanism and pivotal moment for the open source democracy that is Bitcoin .
However, from an Elliott Wave perspective, this is potentially a satisfying setup of "negative news" for the "end of Bitcoin ." That is the type of negative sentiment I would expect to see at a major bottom. The timing appears to fit a larger corrective wave structure in the form of a triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z.

The decline since the last spike (C of X) concerning a Greek Default appears impulsive, and the most recent sharp decline (post-XT announcement) in my opinion is likely an internal third wave of the larger wave Z that is beginning to unfold.

A move below 208 will increase confidence this is the correct count. A new low below 152 in a five wave move would confirm and complete the larger W-X-Y-Z structure. I would label this a cycle (or greater) degree wave II bottom per related chart "The Historic Rise of Bitcoin ." Then, it's truly time to BUY!
"New low below 152" - Any idea just how low could it go? Is there potential for sub 100 price?
Corrections tend to register their maximum retracement within the zone of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree. So yes, below 100 is possible and all the way down to 45 according to this guideline.

However, "if the first wave in a sequence extends, the correction following the fifth wave will have as a typical limit the bottom of the second wave of lesser degree." (Elliott Wave Principle pg. 68) This DJIA chart is the example referenced in the book.

In percentage terms, and a log scale view, wave ((1)) of I from 0.00 to 31.91 is the longest wave. The wave ((2)) low is 2.00 and would be the extreme low per EW guidelines.

My opinion is that price between 45-100 will likely be sufficient to bring the extreme negative sentiment that would correlate well with a major bottom. My roughest guess on time would be that wave Z is about 6 months.
blum Kappy
Thanks a lot for taking time to make a such elaborate answer.
+1 回复
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