The fork forces a vote to reach consensus on the future of Bitcoin . I believe this is a healthy market mechanism and pivotal moment for the open source democracy that is Bitcoin .
However, from an perspective, this is potentially a satisfying setup of "negative news" for the "end of Bitcoin ." That is the type of negative sentiment I would expect to see at a major bottom. The timing appears to fit a larger corrective wave structure in the form of a triple W-X-Y-X-Z.
The decline since the last spike (C of X) concerning a Greek Default appears impulsive, and the most recent sharp decline (post-XT announcement) in my opinion is likely an internal third wave of the larger wave Z that is beginning to unfold.
A move below 208 will increase confidence this is the correct count. A new low below 152 in a five wave move would confirm and complete the larger W-X-Y-Z structure. I would label this a cycle (or greater) degree wave II bottom per related chart "The Historic Rise of Bitcoin ." Then, it's truly time to BUY!
However, "if the first wave in a sequence extends, the correction following the fifth wave will have as a typical limit the bottom of the second wave of lesser degree." (Elliott Wave Principle pg. 68) This DJIA chart is the example referenced in the book.
In percentage terms, and a log scale view, wave ((1)) of I from 0.00 to 31.91 is the longest wave. The wave ((2)) low is 2.00 and would be the extreme low per EW guidelines.
My opinion is that price between 45-100 will likely be sufficient to bring the extreme negative sentiment that would correlate well with a major bottom. My roughest guess on time would be that wave Z is about 6 months.