We are entering the exhaustion stage. What do I mean by this. Many people think fundamentals drive markets. This could be no further than the truth. Now I am not implying that fundamentals are not important what I am staying is that Sentiment drives prices in the mid and short term.
Example: It was sentiment and hype that drove Bitcoin to 20k not fundamentals. It was sentiment that drove bitcoin to 6000 not fundamentals. What has changed fundamentally since November or any part of last year with bitcoin? Sure you could say regulations. But we knew way ahead of time that regulators were going to eventually regulate the space. If you thought differently you were in denial. We had been preaching to the choir since September that this was GOOD for the space not bad. Other than that you could say that bitcoin' transactions are slower and that it is more costly. Big whoop! Who is purchasing stuff with bitcoin'? I'm not! If I am purchasing something I'm going to use Litecoin' period!!
But Sentiment is slowly changing, my buddy that was calling for 2800 two weeks ago is now asking is this the time to buy. Sure there are those that are still clinging to the Bitcoin' crush theory but they are simply trying to prove to themselves they are still right. Now I am not saying we can not go lower. We can go Lower. I am not saying buy here either as we do not have that signal. Shorting here is extremely risky. During our seminar one of the ladies said she bought in December, at the wrong time, and asked if just buying every week was the way to go, and that is what she has been doing. BINGO! This lady was not in her 20's. Matter a fact many of the people we meet are midlife or older. They are interested in the space and they are investing. Unlike many that feel they will trade their way to riches, they are slowly buying in.
So as there are many calling for an "Death Cross" among numerous other useless rear view looking indicators, the main stream investor is starting to come around to "is this a place to add or buy in". Keep in mind they are looking longer term and they do not sell on fear. Sentiment is slowly changing and though we can definitely still go lower, we are getting closer to finally breaking out to the upside especially if 7666 holds. Though we have tested the extreme levels it has been short lived, which is also a sign that people are looking to add on dips, not sell into fear. Fear is slowly turning into hope and hope turns into buyers and that leads to a rally and eventually FOMO.
I want to be clear this does not happen overnight. This happens over time, sentiment changes over time and henceforth the market follows. Many are still sticking to their end of bitcoin' story and will soon be making new sign ins as they did when they were calling for 30k at the top.
Summary: We are still in a holding position allowing the market to run its course. From a broader picture we move higher in the long term. If you did not catch Gillian's post on oil', Yuan', Ruble' and Bitcoin' I recommend you read it. One of the best fundamental articles I have seen.
Patience is key here and opening a short position is dangerous, but it is not yet time to take a bullish stance. But make no doubt the clouds are starting to clear and it will not be long before the sun comes out and we resume the bull market.
评论
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For the record, Bitcoin is leading the market and the alt coins are following a similar pattern. Once we get a signal on any of the coins like NEO OMG LTC DASH etc I will update, but for now they are in a similar pattern to bitcoin.
Thanks as always ... good to read your normal posts instead of these hype idiots.
Rogue7
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Bump that link... great write up... you are one of the few clear headed TA guys on here. Well worth the follow... oh, and I also love that you write correctly. So hard to read some of the other chart write-ups, they're so badly written. Appreciate your work.
UnknownUnicorn995432
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Thank you for your post.
I think we will continue to see this slow correction to 4k-6k range until July. I don't think any new investors are going to invest big money into this space. All that we see now is the SEC going after ICOs and hedge funds. For example, we cannot expect big investors putting their millions in Apple whilst the company is producing defective devices and also being investigated by the SEC. More or less the same analogy.
I think we need to wait and see for now. BTC fell from $250+ $60 in 2013 in 4 hours after Mt Gox was unable to 'handle the traffic'. In 2014, BTC fell from 1200 to 100 when Mt Gox shut down and China played their 'ban' card. Now the entire crypto market is being attacked left, right and centre.... and this has been going on for months. It will take a lot of time to settle. For now, the bear market continues.
For me, the best indicator right now is the overall daily volume. And out of all of the exchanges, Bitfinex volume (the one that is displayed on their website before you log in). The volume fell below $450 million yesterday. Some movement was expected... and here we are after 24 hours with the same price range.
Once again, everything is an opportunity. We will continue to see bounces all the way. For now, my target for BTC remains at 5.2k-5.5k, ETH 300-400, LTC ~50, NEO 30-35.... all before July...
We should see signs of a slow rally from August onwards. Unless the next financial crisis starts sooner than later, i.e. sooner than the next 12-16 months.
johny_button
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@doctorkesh, BNB (binance) while BTC lets of some steem.
Bearhoney
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Thank you for your long term wisdom and encouragement!
Domsax48
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Thank you. Could you please give a link to to Gillian's article you mentioned?