BTC/USD 4hr chart.
BTC is currently dropping from the last high (11.8k) when it failed to break the downtrend chanel stablished on early January and found some support testing the 50 and 200 EMA at 10.2k. It isn't a good entry point right now because if we break that support (and we have seen a lot of selling volume last 18 hours) we might get to lower areas like 9-9.4k support zone, and above us there is the 11k resistance with the downtrend chanel and the 61.8% retracement from the large bearish movement. If we get back to that resistance and fail to break it we might see the formation of a H&S pattern with the target set to the 9.4k support area, and if we drop to the 9.4k support area, fail to break it and get back to 11k we might see the formation of a much larger inverted H&S pattern, with the target set to around 17k. Of course I'll need confirmations and volume to start any trade and be sure of any pattern but the key areas to watch are the 11-11.3k resistance and 10-10.2k support. If the first is broken and confirmed I'll start that trade at 11.3-11.5k and hold for the long term run set to 17k. If the second is broken and confirmed I'll sell the small amount I'm holding for trading at 9.7-9.9k and wait for a confirmation of the support area at 9-9.4k zone before starting the trade, probably looking for a recover back to 11k and a break for the long term run set to 17k. In any case breaking the resistance of 11k means, in my opinion, that the bears definitely lost the battle.
Of course trading is a pure matter of risk and if I buy right I would get more profit in case the price just rise and break the resistance at 11k (maybe forming an inverted cup and handle? or maybe already finishing the right large shoulder of the inverted H&S with a small bounce) but I'm not willing to take that risk and rather just watch for the confirmation of the breakouts. I'll also be very careful in case we break down below and don't find much volume at the 9.4k support zone, which increases the probability of another test at the 6k support...
Ps: I'm not a professional nor a TA analyst. Just sharing my thoughts.
BTC is currently dropping from the last high (11.8k) when it failed to break the downtrend chanel stablished on early January and found some support testing the 50 and 200 EMA at 10.2k. It isn't a good entry point right now because if we break that support (and we have seen a lot of selling volume last 18 hours) we might get to lower areas like 9-9.4k support zone, and above us there is the 11k resistance with the downtrend chanel and the 61.8% retracement from the large bearish movement. If we get back to that resistance and fail to break it we might see the formation of a H&S pattern with the target set to the 9.4k support area, and if we drop to the 9.4k support area, fail to break it and get back to 11k we might see the formation of a much larger inverted H&S pattern, with the target set to around 17k. Of course I'll need confirmations and volume to start any trade and be sure of any pattern but the key areas to watch are the 11-11.3k resistance and 10-10.2k support. If the first is broken and confirmed I'll start that trade at 11.3-11.5k and hold for the long term run set to 17k. If the second is broken and confirmed I'll sell the small amount I'm holding for trading at 9.7-9.9k and wait for a confirmation of the support area at 9-9.4k zone before starting the trade, probably looking for a recover back to 11k and a break for the long term run set to 17k. In any case breaking the resistance of 11k means, in my opinion, that the bears definitely lost the battle.
Of course trading is a pure matter of risk and if I buy right I would get more profit in case the price just rise and break the resistance at 11k (maybe forming an inverted cup and handle? or maybe already finishing the right large shoulder of the inverted H&S with a small bounce) but I'm not willing to take that risk and rather just watch for the confirmation of the breakouts. I'll also be very careful in case we break down below and don't find much volume at the 9.4k support zone, which increases the probability of another test at the 6k support...
Ps: I'm not a professional nor a TA analyst. Just sharing my thoughts.
评论:
Price went back to 10.9k before coming down again to finally break the support at 10k. Currently at 9.8k, I'll be waiting for a confirmation of the support at 9.4k to start my trade, possibly open a small position in case we get close to it without confirming.
交易开始:
Started my positions at 9.6k, 9.8k and just added most of it at 10.3k, after breaking the 3 EMA with a high volume (also MACD crossed and some reversal candles on daily time frame). I think the movement was smaller at the H&S and bigger at the inversed H&S, but we did hit the first target and now I'm waiting for a break at 11-11.5k to confirm my secocnd target (17k).
Here is how my chart looks like now:
Here is how my chart looks like now: