Luckily, if you were following me you'd be prepared for a sell off. Unfortunately, my support levels didn't hold at $11,193-$11,600. I've been self analyzing as to why, this support level was different than the previous ones, and the only thing I can think of is the futures closing today, I believe a lot of people began shorting the hell out of BTC -14.37% yesterday and today.
Regardless, I got in my entries in the mid 1100's, so it could be alot worst, and I'm thankful for that!
I've been observing BTC -14.37% this morning and I feel that we're very close to another temporary bottom.
Key Notes:
1) We want to see some range trading in this range, I'm not expecting BTC -14.37% to blast off to the stratosphere anytime soon, there are still too many negative indicators. Once we do find the *real* bottom, we should be expecting to see a strong bounce. 2) $7000-$8600 are in play right now. If you can grab a buy there - DO IT! 2) $12,400 - observe it closely. It was the number to look at yesterday, today it's further off, but still a key area.
Lastly, I've been getting quite a few pm's about whether I offer services, social media, or website etc. I'm looking into it, however I really want to focus on growing my presence on tradingview and build from there. I want to earn trust from you, the traders first.
As always if you find this information useful, please support me by hitting the like button, and by throwing me a follow. I'll continue to update this as the day unfolds, and hopefully we can get some trading levels established down here!
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1) Confirm a breakout of the downtrend channel 2) Watch how it reacts off the 20 day MA (if step 1 completes) 3) If we break past 20 day MA, good sign, I would expect a test towards $11,800 and I would anticipate this would begin to act as a new support.
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I misspoke and sayd 20 DAY MA, it's the unit of whatever your looking at, so in this case the hourly.
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Let's see if we can break that 20 MA, additionally, futures expire shortly, let's see what happens!
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That support line is looking preeeeety good so far, and futures just ended. I think we'll get back up into the 11's here shortly, but once again, we're going to want to pay special attention to that 11,800 range.
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Cohosting live with another friend of mine @ twitch.tv/cryptoshill talking live analysis about BTC and what's happening.
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Calling it a night,
If your trading tonight, look for the moving averages to hold as support, with a large buy volume coming in behind it. That should be your signal that a bottom has been found. Good luck and I'll update tomorrow!
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Good morning traders,
Looks like we had our range trading I was looking for!
Last night I mentioned the necessity for buy volume to pick up, and for moving averages to be respected as support. So far both things have happened, now I want to make it clear, we haven't had a real downward pressure sell off at these levels yet, so what could happen, is a push to higher zones with a sharp sell off being triggered.
That's what I'm looking for, a real test of these temporary supports we've found.
Meanwhile, if this keeps up I'm expecting to see a test of the $12,400 zone, and depending on the sell off pressure there, should be a solid indicator based on where (and if) we catch support that we may have found a bottom.
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I wanted to point out, in case I wasn't clear, that if and when a sell off happens ( I anticipate one) if the moving averages don't catch, we're right back in hot water and looking at sub 10k BTC.
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Additionally, full disclosure, between yesterday and today I have closed out positions that I made a small % on, roughly 45% I will either rebuy the upcoming dip, or, if we have confirmations of a breakout, will buy into that.
Either way, I'll let you know!
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We are beginning to see divergence from the price, volume, and money flow indicator, I would anticipate a sell off soon, if the bears can't get the volume back.
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Additionally, while I'm not perfectly news driven, the south korean government stated they will decide on whether or not the korean exchanges will be closed today (thursday, its already friday there) so no release has been made.
With that in mind, and the negative indicators I'm seeing above in terms of lack of momentum, I've closed out all my positions and I'm in a stand by and observe mode.
Good luck all, and trade safely!
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I'll post a new chart when I decide to enter back into the market.
Noob here, can someone please explain me what's MA?
ant187
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@NikHil.solanki27, There is "EMA" and "SMA", EMA takes more recent candle closings and weighs them high giving them more significance, SMA does not. In this case we're looking at the 20 MA (SMA) for the last 20 candle closes, if BTC is to go up, it must break above that, and then have it act as support.
Thumbs up! thanks for the info and the good session yesterday in the live trading session..!
RamMasterFlash
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Thanks so much for all of your work and guidance. I really find your work to be enlighteing. One quick question for you: I have closed most of my positioins temporarily, but I have a few alts on binance that I have just closed into BTC. The question is whether to send the BTC to Gdax and sell into USD, or just use the USDT on binance--it seems the exchange rate is less favorable on binance. Though having my capital in binance would allow for the quickest way to re-buy alts when the market is more favorable. What are your thoughts? How do you quickly open and close positions?
ant187
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@rbenz, While you can make good trades with alts right now, I'm not currently doing it. The play here is BTC. When the real run up happens, anyone stuck in alts is going to be in for a world of hurt, my only focus, and advice, is to get as much BTC as you can, however you see fit, but for myself, the risk of being caught, and dealing with the hassle of selling into BTC, then to sell into tether, all that just isn't worth it for myself.
In regards to whether or not you can get a more favorable arbitrage on a different exchange, my advice is to buy LTC (if it wont be at a losing trade) transfer LTC, and convert to cash.
RamMasterFlash
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@ant187, Thanks so much for the rapid response. Very much appreciated. I am assuming LTC because it allows for a significantly more rapid transfer process?
Keep up the great work.
Cheers,
ant187
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@rbenz, Yup, whenever I can transfer to a different exchange i try to use LTC, if the rates are favorable or comparable to do so, much faster.
Induna
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nicely spotted. I made US$900 profit since this morning, so I am happy for now until we see a definite breakout.. I also closed positions now.
I suppose it will retrace back again to ~10k?
Jacques
ant187
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@Induna, That's what we're waiting to find out. We want to see if the moving averages we've managed to get above can act as support, so far, there hasn't been a 'real' test. Once we get another wave of large sell volume and we see where it sticks, based on THAT area and the buy volume that comes in, will determine if we're at a bottom or not.