Targets for wave 4 are the purple line ($6850 or so) and if that doesn't hold then the blue fib ($6350 or so)
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If the price makes new ATH's then i'm wrong and wave 3 is still in progress.
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$6900 bottom close enough...I think that's it for wave 4, time for wave 5:
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Wow looking great moon moon moon. Seems to confirm 69xx was the bottom. Slight adjustment here, wave 3 is still in progress I think:
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Looks to me like wave 4 is in progress:
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bouncing now but don't think we're out of the woods yet, seems we are going up to make former support resistance then we head down to finish the correction to 6k-$6300 or so. Then new ATH's.
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I think that's it for wave 4 guys:
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Eh, bad call, sorry guys. It happens, but as far as the count goes, still totally valid as long as we dont go below 5k.
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Looks like a good risk reward here, possible 4 is now complete. Careful though, if it goes below $5500 going straight to 5k.
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Looks like we're going to test 5k...
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Eh maybe I spoke to soon, we'll see. Honestly could go either way. Probably which ever breaks first $5600 or $5900-6k.
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Could not break through 6k...
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So well see, could go either way.
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Looking good, as long as we stay above 6k than I think wave 4 is complete:
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Looking great, and now we have a beautiful bull pennant forming:
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Short term target reached more or less:
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Keeping an eye on the 1.38 extension...if we can successfully clear this level, the uptrend resumes...if not still can expect a decent pull back before we go to 10k+
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Just updated the fibs to take into account the new high, again unless we break the 1.38 ext (around $8500) still expecting this pull back for wave 2 of 5 of 5:
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Sorry guys, forgot to update this one, price broke above $8500 and pulled back a bit and went higher, seems clear we are going up and the uptrend continues. Could get still get that pull back from higher prices, well see.
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Could still go higher tough to say but regardless I think this is just the first wave, so could get something like this soon:
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Stoch RSI overbought on every time frame from 30m up to the 1 week...could get something like this soon:
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Went a bit higher, but starting to slow down a bit, might finally get that nice drop here. So, been thinking about it (and I don't want to scare anyone lol) but it is *possible that this was the entire 5th wave and the cycle is complete. NOW, I don't think that's the case, I think more likely this is just a 1 and 2 of another big impulse up. But its important to consider all possibilities. So if i'm right, and we head down, this is either the start of an "A" wave of a big A-B-C correction, or its just wave 2 of a huge move up. Again I still think the latter is more likely. We have no way of knowing, so let's see how the market reacts to the next dip (assuming it actually comes):
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Here's a visualization of what I mean on the daily chart, looking for a nice pullback, and then either the green arrow scenario or the red arrow scenario. Let's hope it's green : )
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*Sorry 1 should be: 1/5, and 2 should be 2/A!! Hope that makes sense.
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Like this *
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Looks like she's got more steam left in the tank...still think we'll get a nice pull back soon...then I will basically look to see how we react to that dip...
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Time to ruin the fun?
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Guess not, so wrong haha. If it can maintain 10k who knows how high it can go.
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HMM okay, finally reached the target of this chart. This is strong resistance, if we're goign to get a pull back it should come in this range. If not, you can just throw the charts out the window : ) Anyway, few premature pull back calls aside, ended up being a nice chart. Will probably publish a new one instead of updating this one going forward. Gluck all.
"you can just throw the charts out the window : ) " hehehe so true
btc2evan
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I had the same idea before the 10k break out, now I have no idea where this is going to go. perhaps we get a pull back after hitting 11 -12K, but not sure if this is going to be the end of it, maybe we will hit 40 - 50k in the end
the_hitman
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Thinking we may follow same fractal as when we topped out at 5k. We hit resistance at the 2.272 fib quick leg down to the 1.618 then up to 2.618 fib then support test of previous high at 3k. Now would mean down to 6200 then 8200 range then 5k.
@btc_joe, BCH madness pushed us a bit lower than expected so not sure fractal still valid. Held the Kijun on the 1d so far so 5500 looking like bottom for now. 1d Tenkan (blue) still above Kijun (red), cloud bullish, price above cloud so cloud not telling you to exit bullish position established at 4k (green circle) yet. No close on weekly position established in the 800-1k range. So No long term exits signal yet. Honey badger dont care. 10k or bust.
Glad you clarified - at first glance thought i was looking at the scribblings of a madman ;)
So after 5 completes how much of a correction do you envisage? Some (eg goldbug1 and the like) seem to think a much bigger drop is due - even if the long term prognosis is upward. Not sure I agree - but healthy to consider all scenarios.
microfileas
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ps. to clarify - have been appreciating your analysis for a while now.. and i'm learning a lot. So thanks!
ltc-joe
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@microfileas, you are very welcome my friend! Glad it makes sense. NOW thats the next question haha. Gotta think more about it. We'll cross taht bridge when we get to it : )
ltc-joe
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@microfileas, most likely would be a test of the previous top around 5k for a big A-B-C correction. But lets see how high we go.