I previously posted about BTC and a hypothetical double top formation. Now it seems that I might have been correct I was just incorrect on the timing and the scale of the formation.
MACD RSI are both looking up, we will go back up and test the resistance. However I still predict that we will not make it over this barrier as it is quiet large! Just take a look at some of the order books on exchanges, major resistance still around the 9k mark.
The trend line I drew previously for the MACD seems to be holding. I think it will continue to bounce around on it's way up and the inevitably down. Target still the 5-6k mark. I'm just waiting.
As I stated before, I would rather miss out on some profits"" by waiting and buy a floor or a break out than somewhere in between.
I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice.
Thanks for your attention and best of luck, X
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Running into major resistance, not sure we'll make it through. Just have to wait and see!
Who thinks we'll make it?
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Looks as if MACD is starting to roll over, and the RSI is pointing way down!
I don't know why but indicators don't update upon clicking the play button on the chart. I'll have to post a new chart later if we start to see greater movement.
It's way, way too early to be calling a double top. I mean, for it to go up it has to reach that point, but it's not a double top until it gets stuck there.
dereckmezquita
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@Box1515, It's purely hypothetical but from how strong that previous resistance was I think it won't make it through again. Plus we're still in the middle of the correction, I don't think we're out quiet yet. Of course don't trade on this if you're not confortable. My way of doing things is by trying to reduce risk as much as possible and I won't but unless I see resistance break or until we get a strong floor.
I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice.
Box1515
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@XenoBiologist, my point was simply that we are way, way too far from completing the pattern to even consider calling it a double top yet. We've just barely started up the side of the second peak. I am all for trying to pick out patterns in advance, but this one is so far in advance it could literally be anything. Actually, if it finishes higher than the last one you then have 7 higher highs in a row. As an aside, if you look at the GDAX 15-minute, on the other hand, we've completed most of a H&S pattern, but that will be invalidated if we break above $8,500 or so. Ultimately, I think 6K was the bottom and we will see no lower, but I always keep an open mind as the direction can turn at any moment.
dereckmezquita
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@Box1515, Thanks for the comment, it's good to have people challenge a view point makes one think!
Yes I agree you're right, so my chart was just hypothetical. What was interesting to me was the MACD the way it's been finding a new level then bouncing down. I thought this patter might repeat itself and it looks like it's possible as of now.
I'd love to see a break out to 11k or 15k even, but I think that a pessimist's view is one to take during these times. Sure there's been good media coverage, but we're no where near out of this downward trend, it looks as if you zoom out we've been in a downward channel ever since the top! Not something I addressed in my chart but something that reinforces this idea of down! I'd rather buy late and get something going up than too early and stress about losses"".
So you think 6k was the bottom? Do you think we'll make it through that 8,6k to 9k range of resistance? If so why?
Box1515
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@XenoBiologist, I do think 6K was the bottom. BTC's rebound was weak compared to alts, but unusually strong for BTC. More importantly to me though is that some alts rebounded 80-100% up from the low. The total market cap did a full V-shaped bounce also and actually ended up higher than before the last drop. It would be very unusual for everything to drop below that point after such a steep bounce. That said, I am not entirely convinced we'll break through the ~9K resistance right now. The market has been picking up momentum, but it certainly hasn't gone full bull yet. And we're looking at Chinese New Year coming up on 2/16 and historically, the Chinese people pull money out of their investments prior to this in order to celebrate. Maybe they already did this weeks ago or maybe we'll still see some more money temporarily leave the market over the next few days. I don't think any of the "what ifs" we're facing though are significant enough to be a catalyst for any major drops. On the positive side, however, I think the US gov't announcement that they would essentially be doing nothing with crypto aside from cracking down on ICOs and tax evaders was immensely positive and we can see that in how the market reacted to it. Ultimately, I think we'll either break above 9K within the nest few hour or retrace no further than 8K, which would keep the uptrend intact
dereckmezquita
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@Box1515, Updated my chart, sorry dude but I am not sure I agree yet. I think we might still go down a bit before we're safe. Still I think even though it varies 1-2k for the level that BTC is at I consider this trading sideways.
Box1515
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@XenoBiologist, I agree that we might go down, but I don't think it will be lower than the $5,900 we hit last time. I certainly wouldn't mind if we did though. I'm always up for a fire sale. :D