monkia

Schizophrenic BTCUSD

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
580 6 10
I feel a little schizophrenic at the moment. One minute I'm calling that a revisit to $6k is less likely, the next minute sentiment has changed and it's back on the cards. This is not surprising. We are in an area of balance, trading between $8k and $9k. A break below $7.7k will signal the bears are still in control and a break above $9.5k will signal that the bears are waking. I not looking to guess and instead position myself where the market might take this whilst managing risk through sizing and stop losses. It's a difficult balance to get right as one can quickly end up with portfolio erosion.

Yesterday we identified a potential opportunity to go long on a H&S neckline break. That break didn't hold so I didn't trade.

Today we are now heading South. Unfortunately I was engaged and missed the rejection of the neckline and then the breaking of the 1HR 50EMA. That would have been a great opportunity to enter a short. To enter a short, in the next 1-4 hours, I'm looking for a retrace back to and rejection of the 1HR 50EMA (which would also go through the 4HR 50EMA). This might not materialise and could be quite a short trade which is closed out at a reversal at one of the long areas:

- the cross over of the long term diangonal resistance turned support (dotted blue)
- the upward green diagonal support at around $8150
- or both of the above if they align
- the accumulation zone at 7800 which is just above the 0.5 Fib
评论: BTC retraced to the 1HR 50EMA but is not rejecting it at this point. No trade at the moment.

评论: It has created a new higher diagonal resistance line providing a worse risk reward on the short.

I am looking at potential scenario(s) that *might* unfold that might allow me to consider a trade against my plan. These are my personal opinions and not advice. Please do your own research and plan trades that work for your plan.
maybe it's sideways then bro...
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Thanks bro. Longterm question. U think maybe eth 10k btc 100k. Fundamentally I have no faith in btc. Fundamentally I have every faith in eth. So I'm just gonna buy the eth dip if it comes. If it doesn't I'll still load eth next few months. I am not asking for advice. But is there a big flaw in my thinking? I want to use eth as my bank account...
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@qdoc, my assessment of the fundamentals in BTC depend on how I view it. Technical, product, dev team, etc are relatively poor fundamentals. However, its position as a potential store of wealth and its first mover advantage are important fundamentals . There are potentially better precious metals and other commodities for a store of value than gold, but none of them have over taken gold, a lot of this is down to first mover advantage.

I am open to the market showing me otherwise, until then I have the conviction that ETH and BTC will go through more of these super cycles and swap No1 position several times over the coming year or two and we are in wave 3 of ETHs current growth relative to BTC.

However, as my other posts explain, even now I am hedging that we could be in a wave 4 on ETHBTC or it breaking down completely. I am not ruling out that BTC could impulse up to $50k before ETH moves again. I am relatively balanced and looking for the market to show its hand before I commit but are slightly more prepared to act on my conviction that ETH is in a wave 3.

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qdoc monkia
@monkia, perfect ;-) thanks
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BTC not easy to trade today
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monkia vvezzola
@vvezzola, indeed. Difficult balance between position for a larger market move and not creating portfolio erosion.
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