I feel a little schizophrenic at the moment. One minute I'm calling that a revisit to $6k is less likely, the next minute sentiment has changed and it's back on the cards. This is not surprising. We are in an area of balance, trading between $8k and $9k. A break below $7.7k will signal the bears are still in control and a break above $9.5k will signal that the bears are waking. I not looking to guess and instead position myself where the market might take this whilst managing risk through sizing and stop losses. It's a difficult balance to get right as one can quickly end up with portfolio erosion.
Yesterday we identified a potential opportunity to go long on a H&S neckline break. That break didn't hold so I didn't trade.
Today we are now heading South. Unfortunately I was engaged and missed the rejection of the neckline and then the breaking of the 1HR 50EMA. That would have been a great opportunity to enter a short. To enter a short, in the next 1-4 hours, I'm looking for a retrace back to and rejection of the 1HR 50EMA (which would also go through the 4HR 50EMA). This might not materialise and could be quite a short trade which is closed out at a reversal at one of the long areas:
- the cross over of the long term diangonal resistance turned support (dotted blue)
- the upward green diagonal support at around $8150
- or both of the above if they align
- the accumulation zone at 7800 which is just above the 0.5 Fib
Yesterday we identified a potential opportunity to go long on a H&S neckline break. That break didn't hold so I didn't trade.
Today we are now heading South. Unfortunately I was engaged and missed the rejection of the neckline and then the breaking of the 1HR 50EMA. That would have been a great opportunity to enter a short. To enter a short, in the next 1-4 hours, I'm looking for a retrace back to and rejection of the 1HR 50EMA (which would also go through the 4HR 50EMA). This might not materialise and could be quite a short trade which is closed out at a reversal at one of the long areas:
- the cross over of the long term diangonal resistance turned support (dotted blue)
- the upward green diagonal support at around $8150
- or both of the above if they align
- the accumulation zone at 7800 which is just above the 0.5 Fib
评论:
BTC retraced to the 1HR 50EMA but is not rejecting it at this point. No trade at the moment.
评论:
It has created a new higher diagonal resistance line providing a worse risk reward on the short.
