GramTooNoob
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End of ABC Bear Climb?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
BTC             has constantly surprised the market again and again with climbs after climbs despite bearish signals and it appears to have finally reach an ending point. There is only so much more it can go, probably to $11650 before crashing down, if not now. Unlike others who believe that the market has indeed recovered and we are off the moon, I remain bearish and I believe we are at an ABC climb instead of a new impulse 12345. But since BTC             has yet to do its wave 4, there is no way to confirm which is playing out.

We are still waiting patiently for that pullback to happen soon (much delayed) and if it is just a normal pullback then we should expect BTC             to get support at $9100 before moving on to wave 5. But if it goes below $9100, it will test 8k and lower in a impulse wave 12345 pattern that puts us firmly in a bear market. Either way, its a good short opportunity here for both the mid & long term. That is, provided that BTC             does not surprise the market and break above $12,000 to clear bearish sentiment.
评论: The decline appears to have begun. 10800 served as a very strong resistance previously so once we break 10800 it should be the point of no return. Aka confirmation of continued downwards momentum.

Tip Jar for fun
BTC: 16VhzB59twANDvinuWzGJqdNWor9b9Uym2
LTC: LgegoiHGwN8UmoobmSn69nrDU3fvjTuudp
ETH: 0xA21844A23d6C18384101E67313C1260449F5cbf2
评论: Congrats if you took a short =) Now to watch the rest of the game play out.
评论: Bearish Conditions on the Daily Chart finally fulfilled. %K slow has finally revealed the hidden bearish divergence. The Stochastic RSI responded with a downtick after the last dump. The $2.5k BTC prediction is now one step closer to fulfillment. Nonetheless, it is still too far off to predict. We will want to see how $9100 and $8000 plays out, then decide if we should close the short or sell half and let the rest run.

I believe all of you should already be in profit from your short, but remember not to be greedy. And to also move your stop loss down in order to secure profits =) Good luck & Enjoy the rest of the ride down! This has been a tough fight for the bears, good job!

评论: Well the previous timeline didn't play out very well, and BTC bounced from 10.4k only to test the absolute limit at 11650 and fail. Its amazing how accurate TA works, but the timeline is so random.

The pivot point has been upgraded to $9300 and we want to see if price gets supported there.
That was so sexy 11750 (only 100 off, youre really good)... I have a noob question... how do you determine the strength of the bounces, what indicators do you look at? How safe is it playing bounces?

I noticed the 10.5k bounce reached the 0.5fib...

I think I sort of have it figured out how to work the supports (previous resistances become supports, plus fibs come into play)...

Also I have started reading Ramkin... is that a book you would recommend? Or you recommend something else...


Do you think Im on the right track with this chart? .
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@avito1, being $100 off with a skewed timeline is actually very bad analysis imo. I use the trend base fib tool to determine my bounce target since I already have an expectation of where the bottom is. Book wise, I would recommend anything related to penny stocks. As for your chart, your ABC retracement is a little too much for a 4th wave.
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avito1 GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, Thanks for the input, hope your book comes out sooner than later... Ive decided to publish a chart, hope you give me some pointers, or tell me that Im completely lost and could get recked... btw I really do enjoy your trolling...
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avito1 avito1
@avito1, Also can you enlighten me a bit on the significance of the 200 and 50 EMAs crossing?
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@avito1, I have no idea what wave count you are counting. That seems to be a complete misunderstanding of EW. The 50 EMA crossing below the 200 EMA is a death cross event which signals the end of the bull market but these events are not that reliable on a low timeframe. Try the 3 hours and higher.
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avito1 GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, thanks for the feedback, back to the drawing board and books... got too many lines going and trying to think of different timelines in my head ... so I get a tad confused myself at points... :/ ...
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avito1 GramTooNoob
@GramTooNoob, Im trying to read this properly... do you think the recent ABC correction from 11.7k is over, and we are heading into Wave 3(?) of a a 12345 impulse?
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Hmmm how many times will it test 11650... Feels like it's gonna break it... Was this your spot for the 20k trend line? Would breaking this be bull confirmation or still gotta break 12k. It's kinda feeling like the 17k bounce a bit...
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@avito1, Normally for these wave pattern, it should only test once and break on the second attempt due to an extension. We still need to break above 12k for bull confirmation.
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(I was in the middle of writing when the first dump began, had to short)... This constant growth had been very concerning, although its seems it finally was milked for all it had... I was thinking retracement to around 9k, bounce back up to 11.5k... and then a drop below 9k again... do you still think we might go sub 5k? Any way I can get purchase an advanced copy of your book... or rough draft that you may have?
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