Bitcoin: BTCUSD Over Thanksgiving Entry Points for some potentially big trades ahead: neutral in near term ahead of the action
Hoping you'll have got out of longs when that pin bar mentioned in last update coudn't be beaten. It was likely a serious player in a low volume market who knew what he was doing at an inflection point with good timing - on a holiday, but still hasn't got much traction on the downside, for all that.
Today was treacherous for day traders (we were lucky to break even after such a messy day, if you made a few points after spreads you've done well in the circumstances.) Did try to warn that profits need taking quickly both short and long, but it was an impossible day for all but the slickest and even they will have found that they've given half or more of any winnings to the likes of Etoro. Please stay away from these people. They rely on the unwary and the inexperienced. You work for them. Today almost all day traders did the same. But sometimes the pattern is clear enough to give us warning, and the chart is doing that now. This is helpful to the future. Today's price action finally looks to be evolving into a large pennant. This should be helpful in the next day or two. It's telling us that the range is narrowing, so if day-trading we need to pick our spots with utmost care and precision or we're working for the broker again. If this was a regular 'stock' the spreads would be so tight we could trade the crap out of it. But this is Bitcoin. So we have to stand back and watch the pattern unfold from here. We know it's going to do one of two things: break up or break down, eventually, but is quite likely to have one more test of the lower line followed by a bounce first.
Buy Points/Signals
1. On a test of the lower dynamic support (lowest rising parallel)
If we see this price action, it's worth buying with stops 30 points under the line when tested.
2. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks above the upper line of the pennant it is a major buy with stops 50 points under the line when broken - swing traders can join that break too if we see it, increasing longs, because the upside measurement implied by the break is 8834, about 552 points. That would be cool at Thanksgiving. Maybe. It's Bitcoin.
Sell Points/Signals
1. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks below the the lowest rising parallel (that forms the lower line of the pennant) Bitcoin would turn near term negative and would like fall back to 8000 at first, rally some and then fall away to 7800-7700 range again - a tradeable drop of 350 points - before it rallies again.
One way or another we should get a couple of good trades if we're awake for them.
Happy Holidays America - as divided as you are, you have so much to be thankful for.
Hoping you'll have got out of longs when that pin bar mentioned in last update coudn't be beaten. It was likely a serious player in a low volume market who knew what he was doing at an inflection point with good timing - on a holiday, but still hasn't got much traction on the downside, for all that.
Today was treacherous for day traders (we were lucky to break even after such a messy day, if you made a few points after spreads you've done well in the circumstances.) Did try to warn that profits need taking quickly both short and long, but it was an impossible day for all but the slickest and even they will have found that they've given half or more of any winnings to the likes of Etoro. Please stay away from these people. They rely on the unwary and the inexperienced. You work for them. Today almost all day traders did the same. But sometimes the pattern is clear enough to give us warning, and the chart is doing that now. This is helpful to the future. Today's price action finally looks to be evolving into a large pennant. This should be helpful in the next day or two. It's telling us that the range is narrowing, so if day-trading we need to pick our spots with utmost care and precision or we're working for the broker again. If this was a regular 'stock' the spreads would be so tight we could trade the crap out of it. But this is Bitcoin. So we have to stand back and watch the pattern unfold from here. We know it's going to do one of two things: break up or break down, eventually, but is quite likely to have one more test of the lower line followed by a bounce first.
Buy Points/Signals
1. On a test of the lower dynamic support (lowest rising parallel)
If we see this price action, it's worth buying with stops 30 points under the line when tested.
2. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks above the upper line of the pennant it is a major buy with stops 50 points under the line when broken - swing traders can join that break too if we see it, increasing longs, because the upside measurement implied by the break is 8834, about 552 points. That would be cool at Thanksgiving. Maybe. It's Bitcoin.
Sell Points/Signals
1. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks below the the lowest rising parallel (that forms the lower line of the pennant) Bitcoin would turn near term negative and would like fall back to 8000 at first, rally some and then fall away to 7800-7700 range again - a tradeable drop of 350 points - before it rallies again.
One way or another we should get a couple of good trades if we're awake for them.
Happy Holidays America - as divided as you are, you have so much to be thankful for.
评论:
this break of the lower line of the pennant is not going well so far, but the battle is not over yet. Bitcoin only fell to 8050 and not 8010 before bouncing early in London and It''s now trying hard to break back above the same line ...if still short here the stop needs to be just above 8200.. We look to go long from lower down if 8200 holds the rally back, and from higher only once the line of the pennant from above has been broken on the upside (successful retest) with a stop 50 points under the same line at point when it gets broken.
交易开始:
Getting some good downside traction now - stops above 8200 never hit. Get ready to take profits or lower stop to 8145 and run it. This pattern is now taking shape as it should. We'll be looking for a low later today/tomorrow to get long again from lower down. Happy Thanksgiving.
评论:
评论:
Bitcoin Update
Mixed signals in very near term: the break below the lowest parallel really should mean price is heading lower, but it's
holding up well at 8080-8050 with a lot of pinbars showing at these levels over the last 48 hours of trading, showing real
interest at these prices. Hence the last update to look to take profits on shorts or at least run a stop just above 8140 for
small win if the day's low at 8060 was to hold...well it has done, creating a nearterm double bottom and so forcing bears
to back off again, buying back shorts and forcing price back up to the parallel above it now...can still fail from here
though. it's still vulnerable ...big pin just appeared this minute ..whilst unable to regain and hold above the parallel it
will remain vulnerable.
A real battle emerging for domination of that lower parallel with bears still winning here. Bitcoin can still fall away from
here but all those pin bars at 8080-8060 are stopping the decline from gaining any traction as yet. Don't want to get
sucked in to a rally but that new double bottom will encourage buyers and it should grind higher, trying to bust
above the parallel above it, but likely failing each time it tries it. Watch for pin bars forming on the 15 minute chart for
clues as to just how strong rejection is off the underside of the parallel...the more we see the stronger that rejection is
going to be... The trade we really want this weekend is the break out above the upper line of the pennant - if we see this
it should be worth following for move up to 8834 (stops 50 points under the line at point of the break higher).
The downside is proving trickier to negotiate with all these pin bars below, but it's likely to run into sellers again at 8200
and just under. So mixed signals in near term making day-trading difficult but still bearish whilst trapped under the
parallel. More as move develops
Mixed signals in very near term: the break below the lowest parallel really should mean price is heading lower, but it's
holding up well at 8080-8050 with a lot of pinbars showing at these levels over the last 48 hours of trading, showing real
interest at these prices. Hence the last update to look to take profits on shorts or at least run a stop just above 8140 for
small win if the day's low at 8060 was to hold...well it has done, creating a nearterm double bottom and so forcing bears
to back off again, buying back shorts and forcing price back up to the parallel above it now...can still fail from here
though. it's still vulnerable ...big pin just appeared this minute ..whilst unable to regain and hold above the parallel it
will remain vulnerable.
A real battle emerging for domination of that lower parallel with bears still winning here. Bitcoin can still fall away from
here but all those pin bars at 8080-8060 are stopping the decline from gaining any traction as yet. Don't want to get
sucked in to a rally but that new double bottom will encourage buyers and it should grind higher, trying to bust
above the parallel above it, but likely failing each time it tries it. Watch for pin bars forming on the 15 minute chart for
clues as to just how strong rejection is off the underside of the parallel...the more we see the stronger that rejection is
going to be... The trade we really want this weekend is the break out above the upper line of the pennant - if we see this
it should be worth following for move up to 8834 (stops 50 points under the line at point of the break higher).
The downside is proving trickier to negotiate with all these pin bars below, but it's likely to run into sellers again at 8200
and just under. So mixed signals in near term making day-trading difficult but still bearish whilst trapped under the
parallel. More as move develops
评论:
Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin continues to grind higher, battling to push above the
parallel and still held back from it but refusing to quit trying.
it's a fascinating battle...day traders who closed out shorts at the double bottom and then were slick enough to reverse too, are not giving up on this, and will use the little dynamic forming off the day's lows as an exit and opportunity for a quick short if broken. But until that happens, the push higher goes on until we arrive at a point of impact where bulls and bears meet eye to eye, close combat beckons.
So we hopefully know the drill: don't need to call it here, just follow what the chart is telling us. A break of the day's dynamic means a likely quick fall to 800 where reverse again. And on upside need a break above the big pennant with a successful retest before going long.
Bitcoin continues to grind higher, battling to push above the
parallel and still held back from it but refusing to quit trying.
it's a fascinating battle...day traders who closed out shorts at the double bottom and then were slick enough to reverse too, are not giving up on this, and will use the little dynamic forming off the day's lows as an exit and opportunity for a quick short if broken. But until that happens, the push higher goes on until we arrive at a point of impact where bulls and bears meet eye to eye, close combat beckons.
So we hopefully know the drill: don't need to call it here, just follow what the chart is telling us. A break of the day's dynamic means a likely quick fall to 800 where reverse again. And on upside need a break above the big pennant with a successful retest before going long.
评论:
Der Typo: fall to 8100 (not 800)
评论:
If shorting this look for support off the lower parallel of this little flag..2 strikes only shows "hot"...we may get a breakout to upside soon. Keep powder dry if a swing trader for now. You know the trigger if we see it..
评论:
Stop on shorts at 8175 for break even if this flag is slightly out...technically we should buy that break out of the flag to upside but with so much overhead crap in the way we're going to close out at 8240 if this triggers. Ideally it will still hit the lower parallel and bounce but sometimes even Bitcoin isn't perfect
评论:
MOFO I ruined that in such a hurry for one word Stops above 8175...that was the key nearterm level ...my fault. Wish we had a live feed somehow...any ideas?
评论:
Sheesh Please tell me you could see that...my fault for one word and one point by look of it. So sorry. Move on, somehow
评论:
So this could be a pennant and we've seen the low...and if so it really could be gathering momentum for a big surge ...unless the pennant fails to the downside first But doesn;t look that way so far.. going to long on a break above the smaller pennant top and close out at 8240 ish and then prepare to go long again on a break aove 8260 on next pull back with stops 50 points under the big penannt upper line
评论:
评论:
ZZZZZZ Typo from above comment: With stops 50 points under the big pennant upper line (dynamic)...
if we see this break-out Bitcoin may go on a tear but, if it behaves in classical fashion, will come back to give the big pennant top line one last fleeting kiss before rallying again ...doesn't have to do that, but it could so be warned. But what it must not do is come back more than 50 points below that line. Otherwise it's likely a massive failure is in the making. Although this is grinding away in no mans's land right now it's getting interesting again. Slooowly...Hope it stays that way. The chart update shows the two most obvious points at which to expect a bounce on downside, showing both the small pennant and the older flag drawn earlier. If the first fails, the second one will catch it, so this is where to close any shorts if you have them. Upside, we go long as above on break of the upper little flag/pennant -
if we see this break-out Bitcoin may go on a tear but, if it behaves in classical fashion, will come back to give the big pennant top line one last fleeting kiss before rallying again ...doesn't have to do that, but it could so be warned. But what it must not do is come back more than 50 points below that line. Otherwise it's likely a massive failure is in the making. Although this is grinding away in no mans's land right now it's getting interesting again. Slooowly...Hope it stays that way. The chart update shows the two most obvious points at which to expect a bounce on downside, showing both the small pennant and the older flag drawn earlier. If the first fails, the second one will catch it, so this is where to close any shorts if you have them. Upside, we go long as above on break of the upper little flag/pennant -
评论:
After a load of shape shifting (had to go out, so thankfully misssed the gradual shift as it was difficult to divine) and just hope you got out of shorts at 8100 even if the lows didn't strike the flag/pennant as anticipated. Not good, the pattern has taken all day to emerge but finally looks good Get ready to go long on a break above the upper parallel...successful retest preferred... but this looks 'right' now, at last
评论:
Well that retest hasn't been a success...just hope triggers didn't get pulled there, gun out, and ready to go but another damp squib. It's not being easy today. It's had a few strikes on the lower parallel so it cannot be described as hot right now but not totally unloved either, just stuck within this range with a downward bias until it can break to the upside and sustain a retest of the upper parallel once it does so. It can easily drift on lack of interest back to the lower parallel at around 8080 which would present a buying opportunity - otherwise we have to wait for an eventual break of the upper parallel (as above)
评论:
This is stultifying price action. Enough to drive most crazy. But it's the same frustrating price action shown on the exit of the last parallels with a green arrow. Although it spends a couple of hours drifting down the line it's just broken above, all sales are mopped up and eventually price breaks upwards again. In the meantime if you trade Bittrex with tight spreads you can even trade it, buying off the line and selling just 40 to 50 points higher at the top at 8150-60, just hanging out orders to buy and sell at the spot on the parallel and at 8150. Stops for longs need to keep shifting below the parallel...only close out if the parallel is broken and it turns into resistance on next rally attempt once broken...patience needed now
评论:
Sticking at the blue line 8175 and moving into a slightly higher range ...needs to break 8175 for 47 point break to 8223 where the upper line from the big pennant waits just above. So day trading longs are going to need closing there. Then we wait once again to see if the big line gets broken to the upside, with a successful retest ideally, to go long again.
评论:
Losing bid interest here and likely to fall away without some support...if still long keep a very tight stop..this just hasn't got the power to break 8175 which has been the line in the sand on the upside all day. And if we then break below the roughly defined support lines underpinning today's attempt at a rally it will fall to 8110 at least and quite likely to 8060. This rally has been so hardfought and with so little gained, the bears will know it 's not going to take much to send this lower a lot faster than it's rallied. There's likely to be a better short coming up for those who are still around to trade - but be quick to take profits on shorts as we can see pin bars at 8060 where there is definite interest.
评论:
Last comment: There's likely to be a better short coming up for those who are still around to trade - but be quick to take profits on shorts as we can see pin bars at 8060 where there is definite interest. ..
Well those who stuck around finally got a sweet reward. After struggling all day to make 100 points downside early on it was gruesome trading long side all day. The chart was saying Bitcoin was struggling and the short was the easier option. Once the little dynamic underpinning the lows of the day was broken it was time follow short down to 8110 minimum and likely to 8060 where we needed to be quick to take profits and maybe reverse...if you did reverse would close down any longs ...don't trust this rally... think it come lower still. Close out longs if holding from 8060 area for small profit...but we made 100 short earlier and 90 on the short back to 8060 just now. A bad day but a few points in the bag in the end. Maybe tomorrow...every day there are points to be had even in tough conditions. Next time we get a crap day like that we can trade smaller ranges if we use Bittrex or any broker with really competitive spreads - we can work in 25 point ranges when we see them...till tomorrow.
The real pisser was that high off the very top at anbout midnight est...we could have NAILED that with stops just 10 points above...just wish this thing would close and sleep ...we miss some perfect set-ups because of it. Bitcoin. Beautiful Beast
Well those who stuck around finally got a sweet reward. After struggling all day to make 100 points downside early on it was gruesome trading long side all day. The chart was saying Bitcoin was struggling and the short was the easier option. Once the little dynamic underpinning the lows of the day was broken it was time follow short down to 8110 minimum and likely to 8060 where we needed to be quick to take profits and maybe reverse...if you did reverse would close down any longs ...don't trust this rally... think it come lower still. Close out longs if holding from 8060 area for small profit...but we made 100 short earlier and 90 on the short back to 8060 just now. A bad day but a few points in the bag in the end. Maybe tomorrow...every day there are points to be had even in tough conditions. Next time we get a crap day like that we can trade smaller ranges if we use Bittrex or any broker with really competitive spreads - we can work in 25 point ranges when we see them...till tomorrow.
评论:
Really weak whilsy=t trapped below 8050-60- it's a sell with stops above 8060 looking for the next blue line at 7938, a bounce and then likely a fall to 7800 where it becomes a buy again
评论:
Stop just above 8060 on this short for small loss if wrong here
评论:
Lower the stop and if it sticks at recent low close out
评论:
评论:
Speccy buy at 7990 with stop 15 points lower for small loss if wrong..buying double botttom...
评论:
If this trade goes wrong it means atest of the blue lines below, as per outline above....this is so frustrating. Got to get some sleep..Good luck
评论:
Bitcoin is abuy at 8210 with stop 20 points lower
评论:
stop 20 points lower at 8190
评论:
The Remains of the Day
This post is round-up of what happened yesterday, each trade, good and bad, and why. !80 hard won points, 2% or so. OK but hardly great. But do the math before dismissing 2%. Per day...
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Do the Math another way
Whilst Bitcoin gyrates around and waiting for a clear pattern to emerge - no hurry - old bull mode, not young one - waiting
for dust to settle - here's a review of yesterday's tough-won 2% gains. Today ETHUSD has been clearer, so wrote on that in
interim. It's just a prettier chart right now, and more profitable too today, way better than Bitcoin, so far. So am waiting f
or better signal here. In meantime, consider, please:
If you can make 1% trading Bitcoin per day, just 1%, you will make 365% per year returns, buying Bitcoin three times over.
Every year. Or you can buy and hold. Or both.
One thing we learned last night was that support just above
7800 is still strong but that we need to keep stops under 7660 for now: we don't want these taking for they're the last nails
in the freeezer lid - the stops for long term holds at 7717.
Frustrated by the timings of Bitcoin's gyrations. If only it
would sleep. It was right to accept defeat at 8175 yesterday and look for shorts. The long was a waste of time, losing
around 10 points on entry at 8175 and on exit on break of the dynamic underpinning the day's lows. But sometimes it's OK to
admit defeat if that's what the chart is telling us to do. We could have been hopefully/stubbornly long still had the chart
not shown us that bears were beginning to smell blood after such a weak rally in low volume conditions..at least we saw it
coming and so day traders cannot have been the wrong side of this - but the levels where it was expected to bounce, 7938
and 7803, proved useless in the scheme of things. The low was 7876, some 73 points away from the ideal buy point. Rubbish
Totals
Apart from a very fast 100 points short early yesterday and then a very slow 10 point loss on the long (all day, it seemed,
as Bitcoin took a rest at Thanksgiving too) followed by shorts back to 8060 from 8165 for 100 points quick profit and then a
second short from this level with stops above profits were hard to come by yesterday...and short from 8060 is where it
went wrong due to having the stop way too tight - my fault: if I'd kept to usual 50 points this short back to the next level at
7938 at least would have been good. Right call, Dumb stop. Are you learning too, would be reassuring to know that some
of you are actually reading this never-ending saga.
So 200 points of short profits coulda/woulda/shoulda been
320 but for a stop. So that was mistake 1. Stupid stop
Next was an admittedly 'speccy' buy at the small double
bottom at 7990 for an immediate 15 point loss followedby another 20 point loss after a buy at 8210.
So the last 24 hours including today's loss have yielded only 180 or so points, maybe 300 if you were more sensible than I
was with a 50 point stop, not 20.
So maybe 2%+. On a bad day. So if you can make that on a bad bad day it is quite possible to make 1% on a good day. If just
less than one in three days yield 1% returns and th either two were to cancel themselves out between wins and losses it
would be very hardwork and very tiresome, but would still yield a rough 100% return on capital each year.
So far in the past month we have taken over 3850 points from Bitcoin long and short and got some bagged up in the freezer
too...maybe. Those 3850 are REAL points. Whether Bitcoin is or not doesn't really matter.
The only thing that matters here is points. Right?
Buy Bitcoin. Sell Bitcoin. So long as it moves, it doesn't matter. Isn't that the sanest way to view this phenomenon
right now ? More when the situation stabilises.
Too choppy except for day-traders who trade this zig-zag down
This post is round-up of what happened yesterday, each trade, good and bad, and why. !80 hard won points, 2% or so. OK but hardly great. But do the math before dismissing 2%. Per day...
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Do the Math another way
Whilst Bitcoin gyrates around and waiting for a clear pattern to emerge - no hurry - old bull mode, not young one - waiting
for dust to settle - here's a review of yesterday's tough-won 2% gains. Today ETHUSD has been clearer, so wrote on that in
interim. It's just a prettier chart right now, and more profitable too today, way better than Bitcoin, so far. So am waiting f
or better signal here. In meantime, consider, please:
If you can make 1% trading Bitcoin per day, just 1%, you will make 365% per year returns, buying Bitcoin three times over.
Every year. Or you can buy and hold. Or both.
One thing we learned last night was that support just above
7800 is still strong but that we need to keep stops under 7660 for now: we don't want these taking for they're the last nails
in the freeezer lid - the stops for long term holds at 7717.
Frustrated by the timings of Bitcoin's gyrations. If only it
would sleep. It was right to accept defeat at 8175 yesterday and look for shorts. The long was a waste of time, losing
around 10 points on entry at 8175 and on exit on break of the dynamic underpinning the day's lows. But sometimes it's OK to
admit defeat if that's what the chart is telling us to do. We could have been hopefully/stubbornly long still had the chart
not shown us that bears were beginning to smell blood after such a weak rally in low volume conditions..at least we saw it
coming and so day traders cannot have been the wrong side of this - but the levels where it was expected to bounce, 7938
and 7803, proved useless in the scheme of things. The low was 7876, some 73 points away from the ideal buy point. Rubbish
Totals
Apart from a very fast 100 points short early yesterday and then a very slow 10 point loss on the long (all day, it seemed,
as Bitcoin took a rest at Thanksgiving too) followed by shorts back to 8060 from 8165 for 100 points quick profit and then a
second short from this level with stops above profits were hard to come by yesterday...and short from 8060 is where it
went wrong due to having the stop way too tight - my fault: if I'd kept to usual 50 points this short back to the next level at
7938 at least would have been good. Right call, Dumb stop. Are you learning too, would be reassuring to know that some
of you are actually reading this never-ending saga.
So 200 points of short profits coulda/woulda/shoulda been
320 but for a stop. So that was mistake 1. Stupid stop
Next was an admittedly 'speccy' buy at the small double
bottom at 7990 for an immediate 15 point loss followedby another 20 point loss after a buy at 8210.
So the last 24 hours including today's loss have yielded only 180 or so points, maybe 300 if you were more sensible than I
was with a 50 point stop, not 20.
So maybe 2%+. On a bad day. So if you can make that on a bad bad day it is quite possible to make 1% on a good day. If just
less than one in three days yield 1% returns and th either two were to cancel themselves out between wins and losses it
would be very hardwork and very tiresome, but would still yield a rough 100% return on capital each year.
So far in the past month we have taken over 3850 points from Bitcoin long and short and got some bagged up in the freezer
too...maybe. Those 3850 are REAL points. Whether Bitcoin is or not doesn't really matter.
The only thing that matters here is points. Right?
Buy Bitcoin. Sell Bitcoin. So long as it moves, it doesn't matter. Isn't that the sanest way to view this phenomenon
right now ? More when the situation stabilises.
Too choppy except for day-traders who trade this zig-zag down