In my opinion, BTC is just having a small retracement. As you can see on the chart, after the 0WXY correction late Feb, we're having in my view the first set of impulse waves (Wave 1 to 12.5k).
In the last week, we could clearly see five even smaller waves forming, in the form of a rising wedge. For this reason, last night I sold @11.55k.
It's not a big wedge. I think we probably have reached the B leg of this minor Wave 4. My correction target is 11k & the eventual target for Wave 5 will be 12.5k.
Please remember that BTC has broken out of the downward channel since December.
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I think this is about it as far as correction goes. Perhaps it'll take a while & several attempts before going up again. There are many people spreading FUD again. I hope they short now and cover when their targets are met :D
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I believe what's really happening is that 1. altcoins are down because people rush to bitcoin, 2. the same people see altcoins are down & want to get out of bitcoin, too. perhaps by May, bitcoin will post ATH; then, people will start talking about 100k seriously & major altcoins (led by ETH, which has suffered profusely) will boom.
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Dump is hard. many shorts. There's indeed a scenario where incredible growth we witnessed before it's history as banks start to get involved and more sophisticated investors gain control of the market
@monkia, Hi, yes, this I noticed but I dismissed it as unmeaningful penetration :)
I saw your posts & you suggest this is an ending diagonal. While it's possible, I think the market is slowly turning bullish, & the size of this pattern to me suggests it's not as important.
I believe what's really happening is that 1. altcoins are down because people rush to bitcoin, 2. the same people see altcoins are down & want to get out of bitcoin, too. very soon, bitcoin will post ATH; then, people will start talking about 100k seriously & altcoins will boom.
monkia
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@DrJLT, keep up the good work. It's good to see multiple views and opinions. I share your aspirations for a boom again but for me, the TA is suggesting it will take longer. We all have our views and that's what creates a market, so no problem with that. As far as I see, the probability stacks in favour of 5 waves done, it needs a retrace. Its not FUD, I have a lot of money invested in BTC, it is the reality of price and market dynamics.
Dismissing Mr Elliot's key wave rules whilst using some of them to justify another push seems a bit contradictory. I agree that there is a possibility your suggestion could happen if it was a Leading Wave of an extended 3 wave impulse. I have it as one of my 4 scenarios. We have retraced just about enough for that and might go up. It would be massively bullish signal if it did and I'd be delighted. Alas, I do not think it will happen but would love to be wrong.
DrJLT
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@monkia, My personal view: among your 4 scenarios, No.2 is the most convincing.
In my post, I basically don't view the past week as a diagonal wave, but instead an impulse wave.
On the other hand, I don't think EW theory is very useful in predicting price movements in the short-term.