Hello everyone, what we have here is a fork in the road. BTC has reached a very crucial support zone and this can determine what happens over the next month, into September. My ideas:
Bullish 1) BTC found support on the top of the previous failure channel. (As long as price doesn't close below it on the Daily chart, this is true.) 2) Can have a bounce from here for wave V (3 Waves moving up - ABC, that takes BTC price to 9000.)
Neutral 1)Price action falls back into the previous failure zone, as depicted by the orange arrows. 2) This will be a no trade zone. 3) THIS IS A NO TRADE ZONE. 4) With that out of the way, you are either holding your position or closing it. There is definitely a potential for a H&S pattern here, which can bring the price down fairly quickly. 5) The support that was tested at 6k is not likely to hold again, but, there are just so many converging points here that I have no idea what would happen if we reach the ? area. 6) Could be a rally to 8000. (Green arrow from ?)
Bearish 1) Any price losing below 6500 on the 4H chart is a huge warning sign. 2) Price action following straight through the orange arrows. 3) Bad news, hacks or further large sell offs. When can Mt. Gox resume selling??? Oh that's right, September. Might scare some investors off right before that month.
Indicators 1) Stoch RSI is reaching the oversold category on the Daily. 2) Moving averages are in this order from the top, 7 Day, 100 Day and 21 Day. [The 21 day is very close to closing above the 100 day, which would be very bullish.] 3) Volume remains above average. 4) Price is currently below the EMA 21. 5) RSI 14 is 53, can still draw a straight trend line moving up without any of the previous closes in this trend falling below it. [Continuous demand.] 6) BTC Dominance is at a staggering 48%. According to coin market Cap , there was a turn around of BTC Dominance right around 60% previously.
Conclusion: Likely to see a rally to 9k. As long as we stay above the failure zone 75% chance that it should take place.
My Plan I've closed most of my positions last week and have about 10% in the market riding in a mix on BTC, ETH and BNB. I plan on holding through until we reach either the orange zone or until we hit the target 9k on the green. With that said, may the market odds forever be in your favor.
*Disclaimer, this is not financial advice. Any positions you choose to buy is 100% your responsibility. What I mean is that you take on all the financial risk as well as all the financial rewards.
-May BTC reach Mars before Elon Musk
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Close up on 4H with hypothetical patterns in play. Purple shows H&S scenario. Obviously it won't be THAT symmetrical but still something to be concerned about.
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Just noticed how significant this zone is. It was support for BTC at ATH when the price was dropping and became resistance later on. I explained how I initially drew it in the comments below.
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BTC has entered a very dangerous place, it re-entered the failure zone. This is a no-trade zone. I would not recommend opening any new positions here. I'm currently holding.
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Orange path is playing out beautifully. I'm awaiting for the price to reach the green support zone before I consider adding any longs. 0.618 FIB retracement is also here.
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Warning, absolute danger right now. SEC news just broke that ETFS decisions are delayed again until September 30th. You can look up ETF Sept 30th in your favorite search engine to confirm this.
Remember this additional pump came at the hype of ETFS. Be very careful on opening any new positions right now. Take care everyone
There was a nice green candle that was part of an ascending narrowing wedge. The failure to break any higher, confirmed a resistance level.
1) Extended the top resistance line from there, has been valid
2) The green candle, which was the strong bottom one, was the candle that broke through the 23.6 FIB retracement level, extended this one too.
3) The lines are chosen more by touching the bodies of candles, rather than just wicks.
Just took this into account in all my new charts and it turned out to be a down trend area of resistance. Not sure if it was just luck or not. But it turned out to be significant.