BTC is still the king, and I expect its dominance in market cap to reach 50+% by April.
Right now, we're still in an upward channel after breaking out of the inverted a week ago.
Some people on this site have connected two extreme points on a chart & suggested that there's strong resistance there, but a channel isn't one line connecting two extremities. BTC already broke out of the that connects 7+ points (with ONLY 1 point sticking out of it) on Feb 14.
At this point, a possible support is .618 (10.8k --> a level that took some effort to break).
Strong support is at 10.3k.
There's little doubt in my mind that my original prediction of 12k by March will be attained easily:
with all the good news, I can only imagine that this is because whales are on holiday right now.
I must repeat: there's neither fundamental nor technical reason for this dump.
It's pure manipulation. The price manipulators also use bots on social media (spamming FB, Reddit, Twitter... + upvoting "short" posts here)...
This time it's really just a "DRY DUMP".
But this is just how this market is. When we don't have the money to manipulate or the access to insider info, luck is an important factor. I hope I can be right 2/3 of the time.
In retrospect I should've sold as well.
with crashes this hard again and again in two months, many alts will have a hard time in months
Full-on correction mode.
IMHO, what actually causes some crashes is that many 'traders' are not aware of these necessary technical pull backs and then panic causing a much bigger pull back than was necessary or indeed a crash.
It was an expanding upward channel that had been extremely bullish. Volatility was increasing & there was no top formation. That means a technical reversal was not insight.
In this context, Wave 3 should've extended at least to 1.618 of the neckline / top of Wave 1 (in my view). A sudden crash like this is hairy. I also don't see a Wave 5 yet. This is if we count the waves from the 6k bottom.
I think it's better not to rely on EW to predict reversal but instead look at reversal patterns & signs of bull exhaustion.
One sign that was there but I chose to ignore (apparently mistakenly) was bearish divergence in volume.
Here is the five waves I see which gave 1.168 extension for wave 3 from wave 1. Also the other indicators were that the height of the H&S formation was met and it had convergence with wave 5 bear down. The red area was put in a week or two ago.
I was also wrong about the 1.618 -> that was 10.8k. I had this number in my head & didn't really check again when I posted / made the decision to hodl.