CME bitcoin futures termination of trading happens Friday (last of the month) at 4pm London time. We've got about 24 hours. The previous CBOE expiration was preceded by a massive selloff right up to the end (mid-january) -- and then a big rebound rally. So for those expecting another heavy dump, why are we consolidating on support? If there was going to be carnage, it should be happening already, not post-expiry. Instead, we're pressed up against the triangle top, waiting to launch...
We're settled on top of the 11,150 major S/R. Market has been sitting on its hands for days waiting for this date to arrive, bouncing around inside triangles, just killing time. See my other "fractal road" chart for a different view of the same scenario. Neither bulls nor bears have been willing to make a move before the expiry date, so price action has been boring as hell...
Yes, I used a 5-wave path to show the impulse. I find it useful to map out possible pullbacks. No, I am not an Elliot Wave guy. Don't expect me to debate the subjective nuances of wave counts :P
The cloud has provided resistance since the recent rebound high of 13K, and we hugged the underside perfectly. I've posted this same path curving underneath the cloud as an update on my other recent charts. Now we should come up from below and penetrate for a clear-sky rocket trajectory to 14,600-15,000 max. And look at the retrace fib waiting for us up there at the intersection: the juicy 0.705 "OTE" zone, where happy orders go to get filled ;)
If my charts are helpful, and they result in profit for you, tips are most welcome, and encourage me to keep posting these updates for free ;) PM for crypto addresses
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looks like we had yet another round of suspect asian exchange FUD news dropped EXACTLY at the moment we were breaching the triangle top. CoinCheck heist news wasn't even about bitcoin, just withdrawals stopped (NEM coin??) [facepalm]
That's how you pour fuel on a panic move you want to happen (and already have a decent TA reason for, like filling out the triangle a little longer waiting for futures)
In any case, we just dropped right to the bottom of the pattern, how convenient :P Triangle is still intact, weak hands were thoroughly shook, and smart traders were given a second cheap entry at 10,400 ;)
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Forecast high might need to be pulled down a bit, because the longer we take to kickoff the rally, the further down the trendline we intersect. Maybe tops out at 14,600 from here...
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New 4H candle just printed, solid breakout finally (after three attempts) -- we have cleared the triangle top and the loooong downtrend line since 17.2K. The cloud we've been hugging on the underside for so long is now being penetrated. We've been sideways consolidating in this triangle for so long, with bears and bulls arguing endlessly -- this breakout (and getting above the bearish cloud) should bring some clarity and strong impulse energy to the market. Time to put on the sunscreen :)
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We had out bear trend breakout (finally), but hit our heads inside the fat bear cloud. So it made sense to pull back one more time and retest both the bottom triangle floor and the bear line we just breached. In that precise intersection - $10,800 we just touched down.
So the sunny forecast has been delayed a few days, and the high temperature is down a little to 14K, but the good news is there's a longer-term chance of resolving this long triangle and breaking up into the 17+ zone! No heavy clouds up there, you'll want some sunscreen :)
Also - we have a nice little narrow spot in the cloud to pass through now...
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Sunny trip to the northern beach cancelled due to heavy clouds :P Sorry kids, back on the bus, we're heading for the old gloomy 8K target again
Futures do NOT affect bitcoin price, the community needs to learn this. Its is affecting our sentiment and that's what affecting price, the actual futures contracts can not affect the price
because they are settled in CASH, No bitcoin is bought or sold because of these futures contracts. Back to crypto..
DrStein
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@Jedi_Trader, so you say that the moves that happened at certain "future contracts" dates are just coincidences? Even if this is true the market is affected psychologically by these dates and you can just check this out by looking at the chart.
Wolfgang34
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@DrStein, we only have one example of this. That was the big sell off in advance of the CBOE expiration. No big selloff occurred for the CME. The CBOE selloff was caused partly by news out of Korea and China, and partly by panic sellers like yourself. It was an irrational fear of futures causing a selloff. Futures themselves have absolutely zero impact on the price of BTC. The only way big whales can effect a selloff is to actually sell or short BTC, not futures. Futures are completely separate and no BTC changes hands.
UnknownUnicorn1484051
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@Jedi_Trader, u think it is impossible to buy and sell real bitcoin at other exchanges if u trade futures? Its not. They can and will do both.
Wolfgang34
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@Jedi_Trader, thank you! I tried telling people this all week but they were convinced futures shorting would bring down BTC.
dant021
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@Wolfgang34, It actually quite simple. You get 5 BTC worth of leverage on a future contract. If you are a huge whale or colluding with a bunch of whales, and with the fear in this market you can easily swing the price down by dumping BTC driving down the price and then cashing in on your contracts, and buying back your BTC, likely at a lower price. You make money on the contracts and got cheaper BTC. Rinse and repeat. You could theoretically do it long as well but it is far more difficult to get people into the market than to get weak hands out of it.
Been following your posts, thank you for taking the time to write them. They've been the most informed of all articles out there. Fingers crossed we can get to 15k. Question, if i was going to take profits before the correction, would you recommend holding Bitcoin, or an Alt that looks ready to break out?
because they are settled in CASH, No bitcoin is bought or sold because of these futures contracts. Back to crypto..