Is there an X man who doesn't need to sleep? That's what we
need to be to keep on top of Bitcoin . Still feisty, still full of
fight, just when it looks like it might be settling down a little
it snaps back again. Tried shorting from 8060, looking for 7800
before reversing back long again - just before spotting the
acute parallels that Bitcoin was now trapped beteeen. Too
late! Parallels mean continuation, even if as steep as these.
The last update from midnight GMT mentioned this point and
that breaking back above the upper parallel would mean
that Bitcoin was turning again, and then had to grab
some sleep. If you were brave enough to then go long again on
the break and retest of the upper parallel, well done,
especially if you kept your nerve during the ensuing 3 hours of
trade as Bitcoin came back to a spike low at 8050 before
rallying. That was a tough 3 hours for day traders looking at
price action in the aftermath. Notice how the parallels that
contained the move down saw just 2 strikes on the lower
parallel? It's been mentioned before but bears repeating: two
strikes on a lower parallel is a sign of real impending strength
to come...but it was too late in UK by then to stay with it.
Sorry for that.
Swing traders and long-pull holders with stops left low under
7700 as advised are unscathed. Hoping we can raise stops
here soon, but need to leave them quite low for now and
keep them out of harm's way.
So now the next challenge is find the next entry point for day
traders not already long again on the break above the upper
parallel - it was so tricky at that point there's no point in
beating ourselves up about missing it...fixed support lines
proved to be useless for the second time too - the last low
also - we just need to understand the last move for what it
was and move on to the next trade...
Right now Bitcoin has regained the high line at 8245 and is
using it as support, creating a small flag. Need to watch and
wait awhile and see what shape Bitcoin makes next. Overall
it's still very positive and once this battle for consolidation at
the highs has been won bitcoin is likley to surge much higher
still. So am not looking to try shorting from here though it
looks quite tempting. Prefer to look for an entry to get long
again. We may get a chance from lower down later if 8220
gives way to sellers, otherwise on exit above the upper
parallel of this tiny flag from today's highs with stop under
8210. More as the move develops.
Not a successful break above the small upper parallel yet but it's tringhard here
First support at 8250...must hold up here and then break above the parallel...retest of upper parallel is normal behaviour but must hold 8250 to stay good in nearterm
If not long and looking for next entry it should be once 8310 has been broken to upside...stops just under 8250 for tightest, and under 8220 for loosest.
having lost support at 8250 Bitcoin is moving lower (costing about 30 points on longs before spreads (hope you use IG Index as spreads are 25 not 100 plus on Etoro (those guys should be wearing masks). This is not continuation. Glad to be out right now. And if you shorted on the retest of 8250 well done...the right thing to do. Stay short until you see it hit real support or until it can escape the parallel that's controlling this move so far. Now looking for the next buy point...at lower levels or again, once Bitcoin can escape the upper parallel on sucessful retest... more as this develops from here
Just got to stay patient for now...
Anyway Bitcoin is doing Ok, still.
Now it need to keep on holding as per chart, look at that tiny pin off the lower blue line. If it can manage this the next buy point comes on a break back above 8250.
But we need to be careful here. No swingers . day trading only right now with tight stops and no Etoro!
Whilst it holds up it defies the bears, who are gathering, smelling blood . But if bitcoin can hold on here and then break above 8250 the bears will
retreat. Real tug here going on...patience!
Chart snap shot should have been on last update
shorts from around 8210 break of parallel can drop the stop to 8200 for break even if it goes wrong or keep dropping it/trailing it. Got to be quick to take profits as people keep buying ...got to break below 8160-50 to get back to 8010
Football now...see you later
So now Bitcoin has gone as boring as watching a Jose Mourinho
team try to play football.
The green arrow shows how turgid and demoralising a break
from a steep parallel can be...but eventually it gets a break
up after a painful period of messing with heads. (Like Jose).
Anyway the break is low volume and we need to watch our
backsides still. Initial resistance at 8220, then 8250 and then
8310. It's likely to be a grind, but at least with a north
bearing. Stops for longs under 8160 for now.
Hoping you'll have got out of longs when that pin bar mentioned in last update coudn't be beaten. It was likely a serious player in a low volume market who knew what he was doing at an inflection point with good timing - on a holiday, but still hasn't got much traction on the downside, for all that.
Today was treacherous for day traders (we were lucky to break even after such a messy day, if you made a few points after spreads you've done well in the circumstances.) Did try to warn that profits need taking quickly both short and long, but it was an impossible day for all but the slickest and even they will have found that they've given half or more of any winnings to the likes of Etoro. Please stay away from these people. They rely on the unwary and the inexperienced. You work for them. Today almost all day traders did the same. But sometimes the pattern is clear enough to give us warning, and the chart is doing that now. This is helpful to the future. Today's price action finally looks to be evolving into a large pennant. This should be helpful in the next day or two. It's telling us that the range is narrowing, so if day-trading we need to pick our spots with utmost care and precision or we're working for the broker again. If this was a regular 'stock' the spreads would be so tight we could trade the crap out of it. But this is Bitcoin. So we have to stand back and watch the pattern unfold from here. We know it's going to do one of two things: break up or break down, eventually, but is quite likely to have one more test of the lower line followed by a bounce first.
1. On a test of the lower dynamic support (lowest rising parallel)
If we see this price action, it's worth buying with stops 30 points under the line when tested.
2. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks above the upper line of the pennant it is a major buy with stops 50 points under the line when broken - swing traders can join that break too if we see it, increasing longs, because the upside measurement implied by the break is 8834, about 552 points. That would be cool at Thanksgiving. Maybe. It's Bitcoin.
1. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks below the the lowest rising parallel (that forms the lower line of the pennant) Bitcoin would turn near term negative and would like fall back to 8000 at first, rally some and then fall away to 7800-7700 range again - a tradeable drop of 350 points - before it rallies again.
One way or another we should get a couple of good trades if we're awake for them.
Happy Holidays America - as divided as you are, you have so much to be thankful for.