phil.steuerwald

Bitcoin Bullish! BIP 91. And test of top of downtrend channel!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
In my last post, I completely overlooked the news of BIP 91. Therefore, my short call became null and void. Being away from my desk for almost a week caused me to miss this important news. As of this morning, BIP 91 was signaled by 66% of the miners. This is huge. Only 80% is needed and if locked in, will help prevent a fork. Only 14% more support is needed to lock in BIP 91 and as I understand it tonight miners will have another chance to begin signaling.

Watch the chart at the following link to keep on BIP 91 adaptation: https://www.xbt.eu/

A few notes of caution before we become bullish again:

1) We are still in the RED downtrend channel
2) We are nearing the top of this channel and will test it's resistance strength soon
3) Typically, a channel resistance/support is not broken without multiple hits
4) RSI is also indicating some resistance soon
5) Middle Bollinger Band to act as resistance soon
6) Huge resistance at $2400 coming up soon

I could be wrong, but all of this indicates to me that we might see at least one more leg down before breaking through these strong resistance points. This theory seems to correlate with our timeframe as well.

I don't know that I see us going back down below our upward sloping RED trendline again now that we are above it. I think it will act as support now and may end up helping us break out of our bearish RED channel in the next few days.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect us to dip a bit in the next few days before breaking out, but not below our RED support.
Here's an up to date write up on the BTC SegWit timeline:
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/uasf-segwit2x-scenarios-and-timelines-1a540336c4be
+2 回复
nakov gaia
@gaia, Wooo-hooo! We have > 80% signaling as of now! 80.5%!!! Let's gooooooooooooo!
+1 回复
@gaia, Great article Gaia. Thanks for sharing!
+1 回复
Perfect analysis! Very precise, IMO! Congrats!
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@nakov, Thank you nakov.
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@nakov, And thanks for your help in the comments. I wouldn't have know about this as quickly as I did without your comments clueing me in.
+1 回复
nakov phil.steuerwald
@phil.steuerwald, thanks to this analysis mainly and a few others I made up my mind and shorted exactly before the dip, then I bought back in. So, you called it, I took notice and made some profit. Thank you!
I am glad to help you with the fundamentals, where I am strong :)
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nakov nakov
btw we are going through the 2400 resistance today. Absolutely sure about it. On Bitstamp there is only slight resistance around 2500, but on Bitfinex there is a huge wall up to 2500. So hopefully Stamp will lead the pack. Then M0000N!
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nakov nakov
And the Chinese exchanges cooperate. Yesterday just before the dip I noticed OKCoin getting lower volume and lower prices, so clear signal to short.
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Some fundamentals about Bitcoin Exchanges: I use bitcoinwisdom.com. I watch Bitstamp and Bitfinex first and foremost, they lead the market with the BTC/USD pair. Then to make a better impression of the situation, I look at OKCoin, it should have the highest price of all exchanges on bitcoinwisdom. I see the trend on OKcoin. If it is going up - clear signal for at least mid-term price increase on every exchange. After these 3 exchanges, I look at btc-e - there are the most competent investors IMO. Who don't hurry, they take their time and spend their money wisely because it had been difficult to get their cash into btc-e in the first place. Then I look at Kraken BTC/EUR as I am in Europe and I prefer to get my money in EUR and calculate what profit I have made. But Kraken is a reactive exchange - despite the high volume for BTC/EUR pair on Kraken it always reacts to the price of Bitstamp/Bitfinex. I'd say it is kind of glued to Bitstamp BTC/USD price at the current rate in EUR.
So, that was it! Enjoy and let's make some profits!
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@nakov, Good info as always nakov. I see that BIP 91 has reached it's 80% lock-in requirement. This should help.
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