I am going to share my learning process with you in a series of educational posts (MUST not be used as trading advice). Your feedback would be valuable not only for me, but also everyone else who is following this. Let's call it crowd learning!
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In the chart above I used regression trend. I don't know how often it is used by chartist, but I bet statistician would love this tool. Read more here tradingview.com/wiki/Regression_Trend
It could be used to define the base trend line as well as deviations from it. You select the start and end of a period for which you are measuring the trend line.
Inthe first two charts above, I am using regression trend to compare the crash speed between 2014 and 2018.
In the third chart, I used the 10 days price action and projected (settings > style > extend lines) it to the future. I also use the trend line as a base when drawing a pitchfork. The upper and lower boundary can be aligned to 0.5 median line of a pitchfork.
Please give a like if you find these tips useful. Otherwise, I will stop publishing them to avoid spamming your inbox.
Below is identical image version of the above chart.
评论
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The third chart I posted is not what I think will happen. I use this for drawing pitchfork. If the price drops from pitchfork lines, it indicates trend shift.
Now I should write a tip for spamming you.
Tip: You can copy any chart on the TV by pressing share button > make it mine.
评论
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A thoro (short for thorough) educational trading TA (profit taking) from @Taiwan_Bear
I think I just got another wrinkle in my brain. Will definitely learn how to use the regression tool! By the way I took statistics (calculus based) in college. What a pain!
TV tools make it easy for you. It is interesting how the lower line is acting as a resistance now.
EuroMotif
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Very interesting! I will study your lesson in some detail.
I like trend lines and pitchforks, but they seem pretty subjective.
I will have to start practicing with the Regression Trend tool.
Thanks for sharing!
cI8DH
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@euromotives, I also had the same issue with drawing the trendline for pitchfork. This regression trend makes it a bit more objective. Still, selection of the base period remains as the subjective part of it. It seems the one I have drawn above is working quite well. now the lower line is acting as a resistance.
Just a reminder, I am new to trade and in the a kind of wishy washy learning process :D
I really love your works. They are very educational and without bear/bull drama :D
fastjumpers
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Do you think today's values could be related to the CME last trade values?
@hkh222, I appreciate your great work here! I have been following closely.
About CME and BTC: It may be coincidence, but in the last maturity of future contracts Bitcoin has dropped. Today, in six hours, we will have maturity of the future contracts of CME:
@fastjumpers, I see. Thanks for sharing. I don't know the degree to which it can affect BTC price. What's your take on it?
fastjumpers
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@hkh222, Well, I share with your view that the market is very manipulated. And I also share a high degree with his idea "A half-baked theory about crypto manipulation". I have watched and experienced the movements described by you in two other moments in the last 90 days. Of course, I wonder if this can be programmed by players with a high degree of knowledge and power. IIf you inject a lot of money into an anxious and speculative market, its natural that it tends to continue to grow for some time (FOMO). Coming back to CME point, I still can not get a conclusion about potency in BTC value. But thinking about conspiracy, the same groups that supposedly make the growth happen in an artificial way could also benefit from future contracts.
These two posts complement your ideas:
* Excuse me for my poor English, not my native language.