We don't want to leave our Cuddly Bear Friends out, so here's a short-term play for you Grizzly Growlers.
R:R just over 2:1
Sean Vengan Professional Trader and Trading Educator
DISCLAIMERS TO VIEWERS OF MY POSTS - PLEASE READ CAREFULLY 1. If you don't agree with my views or analysis and looking to just be mischievous, it's very simple, FOLLOW SOMEONE ELSE 2. I am not here to give you financial advice and if you take a trade it is YOUR FULL RESPONSIBILITY, not mine. 3. I am not your Professional Trading Mentor or here to provide you with a Free Professional Trading Advisory Service. 4. I am not obliged to provide analysis, commentary or answer any of your questions. I am here to trade for my sole benefit, not for your benefit. 5. I am a paid member, not a free member, so I am on Trading Views to use their paid services. My presence on TV is not to provide you with analysis. 6. I am happy to help you in your trading if I choose to and I feel you are being courtesy. It is my free choice to answer you, I am not obliged to. 7. If I provide and give up MY VALUABLE TIME providing analysis to you please respect that I am providing it FREE of charge. Appreciate it and don't take it for granted. 8. If you comment to me, simply be courteous and we can show each other mutual respect. If you are rude or disrespectful I will ignore you or send you a curt reply. 9. If you are abusive I will report you and will leave it to the moderators to decide if you should be banned. 10. If you don't like my views eg If I think Bitcoin is going up and you think it is going down, then please do not abuse me just for having opposing view to you. Show us all your analysis, don't hide behind rude comments and alias name. Lack of analysis shows lack of knowledge and experience. 11. I have no issue with you expressing your opinion or disagreeing with my views but please DON'T DISRESPECT me or other traders or write personal comments, this is offensive. 12. I have over 10years+ solid Trading Experience. I do not need to justify myself to you my knowledge and experience, my analysis and commentary demonstrate my skills and expertise.
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CAVEAT: Holding above $4,000 level or thereabouts is an indication that we have a Wave 1 in place and we are currently in Wave 3.
So don't be too surprised if we don't hit the short target. With a trailing stop, you can still make a buck or two and IF there is a BUY signal an opportunity to buy at a lower price than currently.
If sellers struggle to push it to $4,000 then this is also indicative that the buyers are stronger than the sellers.
So let's see how this plays out.
Professional Advice: Trades like this are what I call my "SEND THE MESSENGER" trades that TEST the market AGAINST my view. If the messenger comes back, all is good on my long call if the messenger doesn't come back that tells me to situp and pay attention.
Another way to manage your trades.
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CLARIFICATION ON ABOVE COMMENT : Elliot Waves can get CONFUSING when you apply it to multiple timeframes. I sometimes need to stop and think that I'm not contradicting myself.
So let's clarify, first by reminding you all of my Wave count (which I appreciate not all of you will agree with as you see we are in a Correction Phase) : Here is what I previously as my current WaveCount view:
Summary: So from this, I am saying we appear to be in : Wave 3 on a Weekly Chart and Wave 3 on a Daily Chart and any pullback should not be severe
Hope that makes sense...
if this count is correct and therefore Wave1 (daily) at $4000 we don't want to break.
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ie Wave 3 of OUR DAILY WAVE 5 (Green)
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MESSAGE TO BEARS ================
Bears this SHORT trade is a good WAY TO TEST YOUR ANALYSIS.
If you are Analysis is bang on the money then your price should naturally fall and you will make money$$
I do this all the time. I take very small CONTRARIAN trades to CHALLENGE my ANALYSIS.
In this case, you are looking to CONFIRM your Analysis.
If it fails, and you get stopped out, well the Market is telling you something and you know what the answer is....get back into the FLOW.
@payam_prz, Hi Payam, yes I have a Lifetime Membership Card to the Bears Club but I haven't been going there in awhile as we are in an Uptrend =)
goldbug1
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"Bears this SHORT trade is a good WAY TO TEST YOUR ANALYSIS" Absolutely correct. And great analysis as always! I have your 5 wave bull chart pinned on my hot board watching to see if it evolves. Definitely a cross road at the 0.618 level for sure! Will separate traders from followers for sure!
UnknownUnicorn1063189
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@goldbug1, Yes let's see my friend how this plays out...
tomyV10
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I want to thank Shean for your precise work and especially for giving mee a better sense of analysis. I like your approach.
I wish you only the best !!
UnknownUnicorn1063189
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@tomyV10, Thank you @tomyV10 thats very kind wishes and I wish you all the best too, my friend.
Glad you're learning.
alter.daemon
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Your last chart is splendid, it certainly adds a perspective. Thanks!
Still I am not so sure about calling everything that happened before April as a sideways action.
We had just a significant market change in May-June under media hype and significant inflow of new (and inexperienced ones) investors.
Before that we had a steady and healthy grow with great profit for everybody.
UnknownUnicorn1063189
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@dgutkowsky, You're welcome.
I take your point @dgutkowsky. But the more you work with charts you see that as time passes a big drop today will be insignificant in the future.
I have traded "big drops" only years later to look at the chart and see it showing as just a little blip.
Your comments are valid, from experience as time progresses these events may become insignificant as Bitcoin makes much larger moves and takes bigger strides, which I believe it is destined to do.
Just something to think about ...
goldbug1
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@SEAN_VENGAN, Bingo! long term it's up from here regardless.
goldbug1
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@dgutkowsky, I post his charts on my board when they are of a different opinion so I keep in mind the alternate idea, and know when mine is no longer valid. It also helps to adjust your strategy appropriately as you get to look inside the eyes of a bull and get a better idea of what they are thinking. Believe me they are following bear tracks!