First of all D4rkEnergY wants to say thank you to all of you guys out there - for all that love and support. All the comments and all the private messages. It's really overwhelming. I'm also starting to get hate now and then. And you know what? You know you have succeeded when that happens - you cannot satisfy every one. But one thing is for sure. D4rkEnergY sparks emotions in people :)
Let me just throw it out there: We are NUMBER 1 on TradingView. We are growing every single day - we are almost 8,000 followers now. We are the best Crypto-family here on TV! I really appreciate every single of you guys out there - Thank you so much <3
Ok, let's jump in! We are now taking a look at the 2h BTCUSD Chart. The last couple of days we have been caught in the descending triangle, and things were not looking that good. We got rejected one time when we tried to break out from the downtrend resistance line, but came back with even more strength. Let me be honest. D4 was surprised how we did manage to get through via a bull flag, and then through the zone of confluence resistance, and also through 9,500 USD.
At this very moment we have a real opportunity to get a reversal and start a new Elliott Wave Cycle. As you can see, I have counted the primary EWs in blue for you and the subwaves in purple.
We are on the 3rd EW and have found support on the EMA100. As D4 predicted in the previous chart we managed to rise the flag pole. If we take a look at the RSI and MACD we have room to go even higher. Around 10K is likely, which is equivalent to a 130 % Fibonacci extension of the 1st wave and where the EMA200 is.
In this scenario we hereafter need a retracement. Due to a new trust in the market I in this scenario assume a 23,6 % (could also be 38,6 %) retrace is enough, and hereafter we will ride up on wave 5 to 11,100 USD.
In the other bullish scenario (the dotted blue line) we here assume we are on the end of wave 3, and now will have a retracement at this very moment. We then have to go down under 9,500, so it will definitely be harder to make a new impulse wave 5 up again - but of course not impossible.
If we get any kind of Elliott Wave failure at this moment IT WILL BE crucial. The reason for that is, that we still are so close to the downtrend channel, that we will fall through - also due to the FUD. And to make everything even worse, we will be caught in an even smaller descending triangle, which will through us all the way down in hell. We can then expect to go to around 7,000 USD.
Exciting, exciting... D4rkEnergY will follow up on this!
D4 loves you <3
Remember to HIT that LIKE-BUTTON. Thanks in advance, my friend!
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500 USD insane price drop once again within 45 min. We also have an Elliott Wave failure. That is ugly!
Look at 9th March how the exact same thing happened!
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Hey again Friends!
Not the best days for cryptos. Up and down. People were getting their hope back, we are starting to see a reversal, Elliott Waves were taking form, and people began to turn bullish. And then... A big price drop once again, which made an Elliott Wave failure, news about Goldman Sach's telling we might go under 6,000 USD, other rumors about Mt. Gox might be selling thousand of dollars again, has ONCE again created a lot fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the market.
We went all the way down to 8,800 USD, but are now back at 9,200 now. BUT, as I wrote in my OP, IF we make another EW Failure it doesn't look bright. As you can see, we are not caught in a a small descending triangle. If we don't manage to come up over 9,250 USD quickly, we will go even lower, and we will once again go all the way down to at least 7xxx USD.
Just to be clear. Dont' worry about if Bitcoin is DEAD for ever now, or it will never come back. It will. We have had 2 real chances to go into a real reversal the last weeks, but the FUD ruined it.
We now just need a bigger correction, so we can go back with even bigger strength. It's all good :)
D4rkEnergY loves you <3
Please give a BIG like - it's much appreciated it!
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So as predicted, we fell through the descending triangle and are at this very moment around 9,000 USD.
As you can see, we are also very close to the downtrend channel, which we probably will go back into. The FUD is out there, and D4 really doubts that we have a lot of bulls out there at the moment.
Please remember to give a BIG LIKE for more updates - it's really appreciated <3
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Bitcoin is really having fun at the moment with crazy spikes back and forward! Big whales out there playing with the smaller fish.
D4 has to admit that the last couples of days it has been really hard to predict what's going on. We are in a period with a lot of uncertainty. Everything still points downward though, and that we need to retest 7k USD.
D4 will follow up on this later!
Thank you so much for following <3
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We are ONCE again in one of these situation where we have to go ABOVE 9,500 USD now. If we don't do it we will fall through due to the HS pattern.
D4rkEnergY will soon make a new chart and follow up on everything. Please give a BIG LIKE <3
Investors prior to late 2017 were generally tech enthusiasts who wanted to support a new technology and make a few bucks while they were doing it. Win-win. They were investing in something- both financially and emotionally.
Then futures hit. The big money began coming into the picture. These guys were not interested in the technology or what it could do for the world. They never trade on emotion. They have trained for years and they know exactly what they want and how to get it. They only care about one thing - TAKING YOUR MONEY. Crypto is a means to their end. They could care less about Bitcoin or if it even exists a couple months or years from now. They would gladly drain it to $100 so their short positions pay out big.
Best believe they will do whatever it takes to string you along, trick you, then ultimately wreck you, the small investor. Technical analysis, while valuable- and it does offer some insight- is remarkably unreliable in these times.
While I respect D4 and others opinions and analyses, I fear that there is no real pattern anymore. What we expect *should* happen on a technical basis, often does not. It’s not that these guys are bad at TA, it’s that they also realize that we are at the mercy of things bigger and more powerful than traditional market patterns here. This is unregulated trading. This is the Wild West.
That’s why they say “this is likely to happen, but this could also happen”.
Because nobody here has a crystal ball. Nobody here owns 10,000 BTC and can make the market move with a single buy/sell order. Nobody here can has the cash to pay off news sites to publish fake news (or twist neutral news stories into some horrible doom scenario).
All we can do is make sure we’re not caught off guard. I still think we will see the bull market again, but it’ll be very different from the 2017 one. No more parabolic runs, no more checking your portfolio and seeing it has gone up another 5% overnight. No more comfort. More anxiety, more stress, more questioning if this is really the right decision for you.
But that’s ok. Those of us who stick it out and don’t give in to the FUD and manipulation will see a better day. For those stuck in long positions... give up your emotions. Know in yourself that we will see good times again, and stop worrying about the price today. Don’t let these fluctuations stress you out and put you in a bad mood. It’s not worth it.
To my Bitcoin bulls: we will rise again. The reign of BTC/ETH won’t be stopped. Bitcoin will be digital gold. ETH will change things with its technology. And then, as is natural, they will be superseded by bigger and better technology. In the meantime, they are building the foundation of a new paradigm. I believe that.
macintosh
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Price movement does not seem to be natural. Slow accumulation followed by the very fast rise and then high volume drop again. I dont think TA is useful here. It looks more and more like gambling.
DashV
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If indicators show downtrend it means it will go up. Whales are drawing these indicators to manipulate people.
alain1405
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There's a typo in the title. "Here is a likely BULLSHIT scenario...".
karlkrawall
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Darkenergy is copying Magic Poop Cannon so hard that I wonder if they are the same person.
evansmichaelj
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@karlkrawall, They have different writing styles, seem to be from different continents, and Poop is not at all a practitioner of Elliot Wave Theory. He indeed mocks EW Theory. Neither one seems to copy the other's calls, to me at least.
Timothie_Roggers
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@evansmichaelj, d4 absolutely copied poop on his writing style there is no debate lol. different styles of charting though
evansmichaelj
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@Timothie_Roggers, Ha, if you're talking about that Rick Flair Style braggadocio, then we are talking about different things. Sure they both do that but neither invented it, and it is a very common form of humor and entertainment. Some people just don't get it and are offended by that style. Sorry that I've helped to sidetrack this TA conversation at such a time.
GustavoBrucestavo
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@karlkrawall, Yea, they both suck. Go look a balocik or Kazanawave, D4 and shit cannon are jokes.
Then futures hit. The big money began coming into the picture. These guys were not interested in the technology or what it could do for the world. They never trade on emotion. They have trained for years and they know exactly what they want and how to get it. They only care about one thing - TAKING YOUR MONEY. Crypto is a means to their end. They could care less about Bitcoin or if it even exists a couple months or years from now. They would gladly drain it to $100 so their short positions pay out big.
Best believe they will do whatever it takes to string you along, trick you, then ultimately wreck you, the small investor. Technical analysis, while valuable- and it does offer some insight- is remarkably unreliable in these times.
While I respect D4 and others opinions and analyses, I fear that there is no real pattern anymore. What we expect *should* happen on a technical basis, often does not. It’s not that these guys are bad at TA, it’s that they also realize that we are at the mercy of things bigger and more powerful than traditional market patterns here. This is unregulated trading. This is the Wild West.
That’s why they say “this is likely to happen, but this could also happen”.
Because nobody here has a crystal ball. Nobody here owns 10,000 BTC and can make the market move with a single buy/sell order. Nobody here can has the cash to pay off news sites to publish fake news (or twist neutral news stories into some horrible doom scenario).
All we can do is make sure we’re not caught off guard. I still think we will see the bull market again, but it’ll be very different from the 2017 one. No more parabolic runs, no more checking your portfolio and seeing it has gone up another 5% overnight. No more comfort. More anxiety, more stress, more questioning if this is really the right decision for you.
But that’s ok. Those of us who stick it out and don’t give in to the FUD and manipulation will see a better day. For those stuck in long positions... give up your emotions. Know in yourself that we will see good times again, and stop worrying about the price today. Don’t let these fluctuations stress you out and put you in a bad mood. It’s not worth it.
To my Bitcoin bulls: we will rise again. The reign of BTC/ETH won’t be stopped. Bitcoin will be digital gold. ETH will change things with its technology. And then, as is natural, they will be superseded by bigger and better technology. In the meantime, they are building the foundation of a new paradigm. I believe that.