The buying frenzy in Bitcoin, just continues to push it higher and higher. There is no time to correct properly. The rally is now close to being vertical, which isn't a good thing. I was look for this rally to may extend to 10,768 and here we are. However, the extreme buying frenzy could push Bitcoin into the 11,073 - 11,627 area, but it's time to become fearful and take a contrarian approach.
Yesterday the Danish news ran a story about a mom, that had bought Bitcoin from her son's savings account. I'm not saying it's not a good investment, but that is a sign to me, to become very fearful.
A break below minor support at 9,848 will indicate that wave (3) has peaked and wave (4) towards at least 6,700 is developing.
As wave (2) was a deep zig-zag correction, we should expect a time-consuming and complex sideways correction in wave (4).
No need to freak out but consider that the price was driven by new money that had almost week to buy in since 10k (and new people (bulls) wont wait for the price if they set their mind on "getting bitcoin") and the week is almost over. Some whales that were planning to short obviously didn't want to do that while the hysteria is going on but you don't want to miss the end of it either. I think if I were a whale I would drop the price right after the hysteria passes its peak (which might be right now).
josephtse
⋅
If that is correct the long wave 4, then it is a parallel of 2013, but just 10x the scale. So if we just drift sideways for years around 6000-10000 range, then that sets the stage to go from 10,000 to 100,000 in the 2 years following that long sideways action. 2013 was 100 to 1000. 2017 was 1000 to 10,000. so 2021 will be 10,000 to 100,000.
EWS
⋅
@josephtse, Hi Josephtse, I don't think you can view time in the same manner as price. However, I do agree that a more prolonged correction in wave (4) should be expected (more than a year). I also agree with wave (4) being more a sideways consolidation, rather than a deep correction as we saw it in wave (2) from 1,163 to 152.
So we are likely looking at a flat or a triangle consolidation, which means, we likely will see the low early in the correction, but only time will tell.
Regarding you expectation of Bitcoin going to 100,000. I'm not that bullish for wave (5). I'm more in the range of 40,000 - 50,000 - But that's still a very nice rally.
josephtse
⋅
@EWS, Haha did you hear John McAffee said hes so sure BTC will go to 1 million by 2020 or he'll eat his own dick? So someone should Twitter him "put your dick where your mouth is". I hope he's joking.
EWS
⋅
@josephtse, Ha Ha!! No I didn't hear that, but this is the kind of headline statements you would expect just before a peak...
I observed that people referring to the Elliot wave theory always see the end of 3rd wave, check the ideas starting from ... April.
nerophon
⋅
@wierzbix83, I too have serious doubts about how posters apply Elliot wave theory here; seems like >90% of the time it doesn't predict the future successfully enough to trade on
EWS
⋅
@nerophon, I know I'm not correct all the time, but then who is? Please take a look at my September 14 post, when I called for wave 5 of (3) higher to 9,150. You didn't hear many if any at all calling for a rally to 9,150. By the way it would have been the best trade you could have made this year...
I think the Elliott Wave Theory works perfectly here too, the limitation is us as interpreters of theory. If you can give me a better analytical tool that comes even close to the Elliott Wave Theory, I will be open minded.