diederikdehaas

BTCUSD at critical support

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
It does not happen that often, but my previous analyses was really right on the mark.
I called the bottom pretty much exactly when it happened (writing Idea takes time, otherwise 4h screenshot would've been taken earlier) and we rebounded to $11.8k where I predicted $11.4k.

And I saw that the price broke out of my trend channel it then exceeded (slightly) my target (bullish!), retracted from that point and then it bounced of perfectly of my $9260 Fibonacci level and when we went back up again, the price formed a beautiful inverse Cup & Handle formation and it seemed to have broken out of it and if that would materialize, we'd get to $17-18k and then subsequently most likely to new ATH             ...
But I didn't write/publish that Idea at the time as there was something nagging in my head.
This was just too perfect and pretty much everyone was seeing it too and thus assuming we'd go to those levels and thus to new ATHs.
I just don't believe that markets are that perfect and predictable and that everyone sees it and it then also materializes. So there must have been something I've missed.
And it hit me when I saw someone else's analyses and he said the price broke a support line, while it hadn't on mine. The difference turned out to be linear vs logarithmic charts.
I found out that I have various charts in linear scale and also in logarithmic scale (so I obviously haven't made my mind up yet).
My daily chart has a linear scale, but when I switched that to logarithmic and redrew the resistance line, I saw the price bounced of perfectly off that resistance!

So I finally had found a logical explanation for that nagging feeling. But now what?
The down trend in price since surely has made the picture a lot weaker and it would've been better if the rebound would've happened earlier.
Basically hoping that the price would rebound soon, I was basically looking for support lines ... and I found one :-P
Connect the low of 2018-02-06 with the low of 2018-03-09 (which could've been a nice hammer ) and then extend it. And then the price shouldn't go (much) lower then $8450 today, otherwise that would've been broken as well.
Slightly more encouraging is the support line in the below snapshot of the weekly chart. If we 'ignore' that in the first week of February it temporarily broke it, but with such a nice hammer and support at $6k Fibonacci line (see previous Idea), it may have been a glitch.


But honestly, I'm really trying to see things positive here. Actually more positive then the price charts and indicators warrant.
The RSI (f.e.) is not at it lowest over various time frames, but that could also be just a matter of time.

So, we're at a critical support level and I would REALLY want to see a strong rebound of this level (which was $8450 when I started writing). If we don't and we break below $8200 then things look really ugly and we could go down MUCH further.

Fundamentally I'm extremely bullish on bitcoin             and that doesn't change if the price went down another 50% from here.
But as investment, you may want to skip that fall *if* we indeed break through those (last) support line(s).
I did go long around $8500 as it may turn out to be a great buying point. But if we break below $8200, I'll take my losses and possibly go short. Hence the "Neutral" stance.
评论: We did have a strong rebound and it made a nice bullish engulfing :-)
Another good day and we may also have MA50 as support, next to MA200.
交易手动结束: We didn't get a good day, but a pretty bad one actually where the price bounced off the MA50, which we can now count as resistance.
It should've broke through the (logarithmic) resistance, but although we went briefly above it, we're now back under it again.
And it also lost the momentum it could/should've gained.
Lastly, on the 4h chart we had a dead cross where the price jumped right into and then the price sank immediately.

That all makes the chances that we break through the support I managed to find rather big and I'm thus closing my position, with still a nice profit.
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