orbsatchel

BTC Is mixed up! Up or Down?? FALSE BREAK OUTS AND Breakdowns.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
SO-


The Long tern downtrend resistance and Long term up trend support are meeting and people do not know what to do? ( The red line from lower left to upper right and the red line from upper left to lower right are the MOST IMPORTANT LINES IN BTC             right not. Keep it simple!!!)

Obviously one thing is there are so many new tradersin the market that finding the trend and ESPECIALLY break outs has been baffling!
In all rights we violated the short uptrends and then broke out through the longterm downtrend line and we should be sailing now BUT WE ARE NOT! That was a false breakout BULL TRAP!

RED ARROWS

If we break above 10,000 then we are heading up up up.

If we do not go higher right now then we might head back to the long term support line ( green circle area) and break through for a false breakdown and then pop higher. This would be 6950-7350 area.

DO NOT THINK IN TERMS OF BTC             3,500 or 15,000! Get through the next few weeks of choppy markets and deal with reality. Both of those numbers night be real in the future but not probable RIGHT NOW!

If we break the long term support line and close under it on the weekly chart then next stop is 4365 at the Fib line. I would count on a beartrap false breakdown there (as marked with the red arrow going down and up)
and a rally that would destroy shorts and rip your face off and trigger FOMO in everyone that doesn't play the bounce at support. Stay out if you don't know what you are doing there though.


I AM IN USDT waiting. If you HODL then just look at the WEEKLY CHART. Draw the support line on the bottom and see it looks fine.

If you day and swing trade like me then obey RSI for entry and exits, check the market direction, use fib lines and support resistance and after you buy use STOP LIMIT ORDERS as safety to get out if market falls apart.

Cut your losers, let your winners run in bull markets. Sell rallies in bear markets and lock in profits. And stay safe.


Look at volume and RSI trend (down) for indicators here. And note the bearish Moving Average Cross marked with a blue X where the moving average inverted.
评论: Log scale chart below looks different and more clear. thanks jay
If you had the correct downtrend line, you would think differently. Draw your trendline on a log scale. This is high school math.
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@hkh222, Very cool and much prettier for sure. How many people do you think use log scale? I am asking because I try to keep it as simple as possible for myself to try and his the average of what other people are looking at and not in my own world. I use the John J. Murphy book and Peter Brandt as guides. To wick or not to wick is another question. haha
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hkh222 orbsatchel
@orbsatchel, Well, linear is good as long as the numbers are close to each other. Now we are talking about 3 fold plus range, from 20K to 6K. ISK how many ppl use log. Professionals know that many use linear and trap them.
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@hkh222, Great point. And THANK YOU!
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@hkh222, Thanks for the talk. One last question. Do you use fibonacci lines in logscale?
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hkh222 orbsatchel
@orbsatchel, Well, I usually have my chart in log scale. Sometimes I switch to linear to look for potential pivot points. If a lot of people are using linear, that will affect how the market behaves. I am sure the whales take advantage of this by taking the price above linear downtrend to give hope.
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hkh222 hkh222
@hkh222, It would be an interesting experiment to study the 2014 crash in both scales.
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