wernerbh
做空

Short term parabolic growth

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
It's unsustainable. You know what's going to happen.
评论: So BTC broke the parabola earlier than predicted. Down it goes.
订单已取消: The parabola I drew yesterday was broken earlier than expected and thus invalidated. I think it will take a few extra days for BTC to hit the heavy resistance zone around 12k (signaled by the blue line). As it approaches that zone we may see an increase in selling activity, which can cause a 15-25% price drop. But that's about it. Many traders here have been betting on a drop to 6k or even 4k, but I think that scenario is unlikely unless we see some seriously bad news coming out. The market has been in a 'buy and hodl' mood since the downtrend was reversed on Feb 5th.
评论: In retrospect I should have predicted it to hit ~9300 on Feb 23 since that's when the CME futures contract will expire.
评论: So if this fails to bounce back at ~900 (+- 300) then we're looking at a potential double bottom at 6k. The orderbook on GDAX looks pretty dense between 9000-9300, so I think there's a good chance this is the bottom. But who knows? It seems most of the dump is happening on Bitfinex, and the orderbook there doesn't seem very encouraging.
交易结束:到达目标: It's close enough to the target, I think.
The parabola I drew yesterday was broken earlier than expected and thus invalidated. I think it will take a few extra days for BTC to hit the heavy resistance zone around 12k (signaled by the blue line). As it approaches that zone we may see an increase in selling activity, which can cause a 15-25% price drop. But that's about it. Many traders here have been betting on a drop to 6k or even 4k, but I think that scenario is unlikely unless we see some seriously bad news coming out. The market has been in a 'buy and hodl' mood since the downtrend was reversed on Feb 5th.
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May i ask a question? where do you guys short Bitcoin? thanks
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wernerbh peterpham991
@peterpham991, Bitmex.com
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@wernerbh, thank you
+1 回复
So my question is this - for the whales that crashed the market and got to buy back in at 5,800 so- now that they’re making MASSIVE gains, what is their motivation to NOT ride out some parabolic euphoria past 20k? If you were a whale that bought at 6k, wouldn’t you ride this train to the top and then take your profits rather than crash the market again at a mere 11-12k?

Legit question. Just throwing out my thoughts. Anyone have a counter idea?
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@TheGush, Whales compete against each other. Once we break 12k, it's a race to dump and fill all those buy orders ranging from 11 to 12k. Then the price may fall due to panic selling (all the way down to ~9k).
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@TheGush, I agree. I just went all-in with 5x leverage. BTW: Whales dumping all the altcoins to pump BTC back up! =D $$$
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wernerbh mightytrader
@mightytrader, Did you go long?? Ugh.
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@wernerbh, Nah, I was kidding. Market is driving me nuts though!

I quit crypto. Gonna spend my time now actually studying TA and charting.

I will come back in a year or two.

Don't FOMO. Even if BTC goes to $1 million, there are other opportunities to 100x your money and turn $1k into $100k in a year or two.

Penny stock trading is one such way and you remain 100% cash USD.

Whales can keep their crypto.

This 24 hour market drives me nuts even with stop losses.
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@wernerbh, Kraken has re-enabled stop-loss orders. I can trade Bitcoin again and not have to watch the price all day! Currently shorting.
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