(see related ideas below)
Called the 17.2K bulltrap when folks were expecting to unload bags at 18-19K.
Called the 9K low on the second selloff, when folks were clamoring for even more blood.
Now we're repeating the same rebound, retrace, and collapse cycle on this pitchfork. This rally should get stuck under the old yellow triangle bottom, so no more than 14K. Some will aim for a test of the channel top again (or even breakout to the upside), but bulls are weary of failure, and bears are in a hurry to get this trip south over with (who doesn't love cheap coins?). Expect to see new triangles drawn during this rebound showing how we're going to burst out the top (like the orange and yellow lines did before breaking down last time). Watch the white bear shoulder trendlines, as they provide major resistance (and breakout rally energy). The most recent rebound stalled at 12,800 on that white line (just like before).
Pink arrows show rough sketch of the path to 8K. We'll have bearish Gartleys and Head & Shoulders all over again, fueling the dumps. If anything, now that the bulls have seen the potential for bloody waterfall dumps, I would expect this capitulation to come even faster than I've sketched. Market is getting used to hearing talk of 8K, and everyone will be jumping on board the dump train at the slightest whiff of bear.
I don't usually have a good sense of precise timing for my sketches, and I'm already noticing an acceleration in the patterns being repeated. When folks have already heard the tune before, they're quick to sing it again the second time. But if I'm anywhere close, we should be seeing the third selloff bottom around the second week of February. Notice the RSI low points indicating the local bottoms of each selloff. Third arrow is an estimate based on the sketch timing.
Of course, this is a "bullish" three-drives pattern, where at the end we rally to around the 14K S/R zone. Expect huge buying volume after we touch 8K, which should rocket us back up to the last triangle trendline, and setting up an inverse Head & Shoulders formation that will finally breach the pitchfork top. (crypto traders looooove H&S)
If my forecasts have helped you, tips are extremely appreciated, and definitely encourage me to keep posting :) PM me for address
Called the 17.2K bulltrap when folks were expecting to unload bags at 18-19K.
Called the 9K low on the second selloff, when folks were clamoring for even more blood.
Now we're repeating the same rebound, retrace, and collapse cycle on this pitchfork. This rally should get stuck under the old yellow triangle bottom, so no more than 14K. Some will aim for a test of the channel top again (or even breakout to the upside), but bulls are weary of failure, and bears are in a hurry to get this trip south over with (who doesn't love cheap coins?). Expect to see new triangles drawn during this rebound showing how we're going to burst out the top (like the orange and yellow lines did before breaking down last time). Watch the white bear shoulder trendlines, as they provide major resistance (and breakout rally energy). The most recent rebound stalled at 12,800 on that white line (just like before).
Pink arrows show rough sketch of the path to 8K. We'll have bearish Gartleys and Head & Shoulders all over again, fueling the dumps. If anything, now that the bulls have seen the potential for bloody waterfall dumps, I would expect this capitulation to come even faster than I've sketched. Market is getting used to hearing talk of 8K, and everyone will be jumping on board the dump train at the slightest whiff of bear.
I don't usually have a good sense of precise timing for my sketches, and I'm already noticing an acceleration in the patterns being repeated. When folks have already heard the tune before, they're quick to sing it again the second time. But if I'm anywhere close, we should be seeing the third selloff bottom around the second week of February. Notice the RSI low points indicating the local bottoms of each selloff. Third arrow is an estimate based on the sketch timing.
Of course, this is a "bullish" three-drives pattern, where at the end we rally to around the 14K S/R zone. Expect huge buying volume after we touch 8K, which should rocket us back up to the last triangle trendline, and setting up an inverse Head & Shoulders formation that will finally breach the pitchfork top. (crypto traders looooove H&S)
If my forecasts have helped you, tips are extremely appreciated, and definitely encourage me to keep posting :) PM me for address
交易开始:
So as I mentioned, the dumps start coming faster and deeper the longer we're in a bear market, and I've adjusted the first orange floor line to match our reach down to 10K. Time for a rebound, with a pullback guaranteed as we approach the white bear shoulder line once again.
交易开始:
loooooots of drama contesting 10K bottom area, but even the weak hands briefly panicking to 9900 just made wick touches that followed the channel lines. Lots of bears clamoring for 8K right away, but we're going up from here. Look at purple arrow on the RSI. All that dumping never pushed us lower than the RSI boundary.
Note: on my original sketch I didn't pay much attention to the angle of the second orange and yellow triangle bottom lines, and they weren't exactly parallel with the first series. So I've lowered them and nudged the pink arrows too (the yellow was basically where orange should have been :P). Timeframes are very hard to predict, compared to price levels, and almost always patterns take longer to play out than I originally sketch. So to those who complain I'm "changing" my diagrams, damn straight I am. Would be a fool not to. I'm trading this entire play, so I want to have accurate updated targets as I go...
Note: on my original sketch I didn't pay much attention to the angle of the second orange and yellow triangle bottom lines, and they weren't exactly parallel with the first series. So I've lowered them and nudged the pink arrows too (the yellow was basically where orange should have been :P). Timeframes are very hard to predict, compared to price levels, and almost always patterns take longer to play out than I originally sketch. So to those who complain I'm "changing" my diagrams, damn straight I am. Would be a fool not to. I'm trading this entire play, so I want to have accurate updated targets as I go...
交易开始:
So on my original sketch, I assumed based on timing, overall bearishness, the yellow diagonal (and some other resistance factors) that any rally from here would max out at 13,600-14,000. Bulls would be hoping to kiss the top of the channel, but would get left hanging (just like all the recent bears clamoring for 8K and stuck in shorts). Such "close calls" happen all the time. But then, just for kicks, I slapped a fib extension to 1.618 on this recent rebound rally, and realized it landed right on the pitchfork channel top o__O Also, the 50% fib is right on the 11,100 S/R level that we're currently wrestling with, which just happens to be right at the first low of the ATH selloff (brown dotted line).
THEN -- someone mentioned some "grades" about to be published by Weiss Ratings www.weissratings.com/ -- and I'll admit, I'm not a knowledgeable mainstream trader. I've just been doing crypto since my mining days, so I've never heard of them. But they're 2 hours away from dropping their recommendations, and if I know something about crypto bulls, they LOVE any kind of news that "legitimizes" their favorite coins. Nothing will cause a pump faster than some kind of institutional blessing or positive use-case (see the recent insanity with XRP).
SO -- I know this is an insanely steep rise to be forecasting, especially compared to the last bulltrap. I also know it's tooooo perfect touching the pitchfork edges over and over again. I get it. This is the most optimistic bull scenario, completely speculative -- but it's an attempt to sketch out how such a pump rally could actually fit proper TA. I really have no idea how significant the Weiss Ratings are - but I know crypto hype, and we've pumped on flimsier news than this before. So sure, it could be full of hot air, and the bulls could get caught with their balls out on 15K all over again. Or maybe the Weiss Ratings won't be kind to BTC and instead some other altcoins will moon. Who knows. Buckle up. Expect whiplash...
THEN -- someone mentioned some "grades" about to be published by Weiss Ratings www.weissratings.com/ -- and I'll admit, I'm not a knowledgeable mainstream trader. I've just been doing crypto since my mining days, so I've never heard of them. But they're 2 hours away from dropping their recommendations, and if I know something about crypto bulls, they LOVE any kind of news that "legitimizes" their favorite coins. Nothing will cause a pump faster than some kind of institutional blessing or positive use-case (see the recent insanity with XRP).
SO -- I know this is an insanely steep rise to be forecasting, especially compared to the last bulltrap. I also know it's tooooo perfect touching the pitchfork edges over and over again. I get it. This is the most optimistic bull scenario, completely speculative -- but it's an attempt to sketch out how such a pump rally could actually fit proper TA. I really have no idea how significant the Weiss Ratings are - but I know crypto hype, and we've pumped on flimsier news than this before. So sure, it could be full of hot air, and the bulls could get caught with their balls out on 15K all over again. Or maybe the Weiss Ratings won't be kind to BTC and instead some other altcoins will moon. Who knows. Buckle up. Expect whiplash...
评论:
I haven't charted it yet - but it goes without saying that if Weiss Ratings are harsh on bitcoin, we could see the quick dump to 8K straight from here (never breaching the white downtrend line) and invalidating my entire three-drives forecast :P
评论:
Sunny forecast, with low heavy clouds, clearing up in a few days ;)
交易开始:
close up view of the current pressure to breach the yellow downtrend shoulder line (and the pitchfork median to cross back to the upper side). Note how we already kissed the trend line, but just like the start of January (compare red circles), there's an initial approach, and then a drop, lots of chop, and then subsequent attempts which finally breach. This is how you put pressure on a trend line ;)
交易开始:
the downtrend line was breached, but the bulls had no fuel, and in the face of continued FUD and dumping, the trip to the top of the channel has been cancelled :P This is my updated path to the 8K target (now more precisely 7900 on bitstamp). Please read my related charted "Correction Continues" for more explanation about the significance of that target.
