Is this bitcoin rally a bull trap and will you lose money? (BTC)
Looking at the 4 hour chart it seems like the bulls have taken control. The question is; for how long? Is this a bull trap or has the momentum really shifted?
Bitcoin is still trading within the grey bearish trend channel so unless btc breaks out of that channel, we can't confirm a change in the long term trend.
Especially not since bitcoin hasn't broken the major resistance area of 10.000 dollar just yet. This resistance area is also very strong because it consists of multiple factors.
1. The pyschological price of 10.000
2. A sub bearish trend channel indicated by the purple trend line
3. The red 200 EMA support line
So the first step of bitcoin is to break that purple trend line, the 10.000 resistance area and the 200 ema line and confirm the breakout. This means that bitcoin needs to stay above that purple trend line, red 200 ema line and the 10.000 dollar price for a least a few days.
The last thing I would like to see is that the ichimoku cloud stays green and crosses the blue 100 ema trend line and ultimately stays above it. (Look at the ichimoku clouds before the bearish trend started, those clouds remained above the blue 100 ema trend line). When this happens I'll believe bitcoin will also break that grey bearish trend channel.
The way I see it there are two options.
1. Bitcoin breaks the resistance area mentioned above (green abcde)
2. Bitcoin can't (red abcde)
If bitcoin can't break that resistance the coming days btc will test support levels once more (green lines).
The more green support lines btc breaks, the more bearish the signal is and the higher the probability that btc will continue it's bearish trend.
Conclusion
1. Be wary to buy long positions because this might be a bull trap.
2. If bitcoin breaks and confirms that 10k resistance area i'm convinced that we'll challenge the top of the grey trend channel and probably break out of it.
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Cheers
This is NOT advice. This is for information purposes only so trade on your own risk.
Bitcoin is still trading within the grey bearish trend channel so unless btc breaks out of that channel, we can't confirm a change in the long term trend.
Especially not since bitcoin hasn't broken the major resistance area of 10.000 dollar just yet. This resistance area is also very strong because it consists of multiple factors.
1. The pyschological price of 10.000
2. A sub bearish trend channel indicated by the purple trend line
3. The red 200 EMA support line
So the first step of bitcoin is to break that purple trend line, the 10.000 resistance area and the 200 ema line and confirm the breakout. This means that bitcoin needs to stay above that purple trend line, red 200 ema line and the 10.000 dollar price for a least a few days.
The last thing I would like to see is that the ichimoku cloud stays green and crosses the blue 100 ema trend line and ultimately stays above it. (Look at the ichimoku clouds before the bearish trend started, those clouds remained above the blue 100 ema trend line). When this happens I'll believe bitcoin will also break that grey bearish trend channel.
The way I see it there are two options.
1. Bitcoin breaks the resistance area mentioned above (green abcde)
2. Bitcoin can't (red abcde)
If bitcoin can't break that resistance the coming days btc will test support levels once more (green lines).
The more green support lines btc breaks, the more bearish the signal is and the higher the probability that btc will continue it's bearish trend.
Conclusion
1. Be wary to buy long positions because this might be a bull trap.
2. If bitcoin breaks and confirms that 10k resistance area i'm convinced that we'll challenge the top of the grey trend channel and probably break out of it.
If you want to receive more ideas like these follow me and like my idea. If i get more than 10 likes i'll update this idea!.
Cheers
This is NOT advice. This is for information purposes only so trade on your own risk.
评论:
As you can see, bitcoin broke the 10k resistance area + the top of the purple downtrending trendline.
Now bitcoin needs to break above that red 200 ema line and stay above it for at least a few days.
If this happens the red 200 ema line + the 10k + the red purple line will act as new support.
Lets see what happens.
Now bitcoin needs to break above that red 200 ema line and stay above it for at least a few days.
If this happens the red 200 ema line + the 10k + the red purple line will act as new support.
Lets see what happens.
However no need to panick because that was just the first time. BTC is trying to break that 10k again. If it succeeds and holds that 10k for multiple days that's a good sign.
If bitcoin can't break above that 10k area or if it can, but can't hold that 10k price level just like yesterday, i think the bulls will lose confident and btc will test the support levels of 9500, 9000 and possibly even the 8500 or 8000 level.
If btc test the support level of 9500 and 9000 it would be just a healthy pullback in my opinion.
If bitcoin drops further and tests the 8500 it would worry me but i could still look at it like a pullback before the next bull run. It depends if the 8500 support level will hold.
If it drops even further and tests the 8000 level It's quite possible that btc will test the previous low of 5500/6000.
The reason i think that is because there is a lot of support between this level and the 8000 level so if btc breaks all those support levels it indicates that the selling pressure is much, much bigger then the buying pressure.