Bullishness is confirmed. I had a new fresh look today at the btc log chart and started to see this setup which makes quite a lot of sense to me. We are still in leg 3. you see the 2 yellow lines we are between now, they are the 2 fib extensions of the normal target. we are on a TD 4h 8, next candle gonna be a 9 reversal candle. on the hourly we are on a 6 which means the 4h 9 will probably have a 1h 9 inside of it. and we are close to the overhead blue resistance which is the top line of the downward corrective channel we have been in since going down from 20k. Now chock out MA's (white lines) en the EMA's (blue) they will both have a golden cross happening around the same time! and probably around when the corrective leg 4 is finished around the 10k area i think which would be a .382 fib retrace from this big leg 3 up. from there leg 5 starts and will probably end close the the blue line i drew there. which line is that you might ask? Its the top of the bullish up channel we have been in most of 2017! It would be crazy imo but beautiful WOW! We broke out in fomo of that channel to 20k and now we dropped back in hitting a 6k low which only left a wick out of the daily channel, and after that BTC just continues making waves inside this channel like nothing happened! It would draw an amazing picture. After hitting leg 5 around 15k if we stay in the channel we would need to go down again maybe 10 to 12k area but well that we will have to see later, first lets see if this is going to play out.
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Yep there we go, started going down at the end of the 4h 8 candle, now a 4h 9 candle just opened, probably wont close as a 9 but that happens more often. we wont get a 1h 9 anymore as i thought which could happen. 4h rules over the 1h though as TD indicator. 10k at the .382 fib and the golden cross of 50 and 200 MA seems a good target.
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update. Im not 100% sure on this ABC yet its more like a rough idea, it can look different as well but i think the outcome will be that leg 4 ends around the .5 fib retrace. i was a bit optimistic with the 50 and 200 ema and ma crossing before, that will only happen a bit later in time. As i said i think we are gonna target the .5 fib retrace where the 50 EMA and MA will be as well. When it gets more clear ill update
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BTC update. i woke up to another rally up. So I started re-evaluating my setup. Well we could still be in leg 3! We almost hit the 2nd fib extension of the original target of this wave which is the yellow line. The green box is yellow leg 5 target which starts just under the yellow line. Now i can also draw a decent 1 to 5 inside the large leg 3. I missed this possible extension before but in hindsight it makes sense and makes a good fit, hindsight is 20/20.
I charted on the linear scale this time. On this scale we see we are also close to hitting the long term overhead channel line coming from 20k. On the log scale that line is still about $1k higher. Sometimes the linear chart gives you info you don’t see on log and vice versa.
TD indicator we have a few signs of a possible reversal but not right now yet The daily on a 7, the 8 tomorrow can’t go much lower than 11k or it won’t be an 8 anymore but the day after a 9 is easier, needs to close above 10,4k. The 12h on an 8 so soon giving us a 9 in 7hrs time, the 4h could have a 9 in about 7hrs as well as it’s on a 7 now. 1h and 4h MACD have a small bearish divergence which could also show a short term top here.
I could be proven wrong with this setup but right now this is the best I can make of it. Otherwise we re-evaluate again.
linear
on log
I charted on the linear scale this time. On this scale we see we are also close to hitting the long term overhead channel line coming from 20k. On the log scale that line is still about $1k higher. Sometimes the linear chart gives you info you don’t see on log and vice versa.
TD indicator we have a few signs of a possible reversal but not right now yet The daily on a 7, the 8 tomorrow can’t go much lower than 11k or it won’t be an 8 anymore but the day after a 9 is easier, needs to close above 10,4k. The 12h on an 8 so soon giving us a 9 in 7hrs time, the 4h could have a 9 in about 7hrs as well as it’s on a 7 now. 1h and 4h MACD have a small bearish divergence which could also show a short term top here.
I could be proven wrong with this setup but right now this is the best I can make of it. Otherwise we re-evaluate again.
linear
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$BTC i might be jumping the gun here but this looks like a likely scenario to me for BTC. 1h 9 atm could give the bounce, then down for C. Bounce at 10k to go up again when we get a 4h TD 9 candle. fits nicely. would prefer slower correction though so alts get more time to bounce