After my previous idea about Head & Shoulder pattern on the 1h chart (linked below), there's now the same pattern forming on the 4 (and 6) hour chart with a top at $4480 and a neckline on $3930, making for a target of $3380. The momentum indicators (RSI/MACD) continue to weaken, making me think a further correction is coming.
With all the uncertainty regarding the 2x part of the NYA and especially btc1's thus far refusing to put in place proper replay protection, and thereby risking users losing funds, that uncertainly is understandable. And markets don't like uncertainty. I continue to be bullish for the long term though, but expect a further pullback then we have seen now. I consider that healthy.
Funnily enough, my previous prediction of $3900 was exactly reached at $3900.00 :-)
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FWIW, I closed/reversed my position to bullish. Even though the H&S pattern completed, the downturn reversed at $3600 and now also the momentum indicators have turned around. A drop of 4400 to 3600 is a 15% drop which could be enough in a strong bull market in which BTC is. There's still an important resistance at $4200, but if we break that, I expect that we'll go to new ATHs.
this is desirable scenario. will see how far down its goin to go. it looks to me 3500-3800 range
vanhelsin
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False analysis
diederikdehaas
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@vanhelsin, if you'd tell me what/why, I can learn something from it ...
Sailfish
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That is NOT an INcomplete H&S....it may or may not complete cant trade on guessing and incomplete techs....there is a completed one on BCH Bitcoin Cash...just waiting for it to crash
Sailfish
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Meant its NOT complete and is an INcomplete H&S...have to wait until the right shoulder is completed to neckline.
@Sailfish, Correct.
Neither was my previous one when I published it though. It's not as obvious to me as the previous one, but the continued weakness in the momentum indicators, which often move before the price, makes me think we'll correct further.
But you're right, you shouldn't act until the pattern has completed.