alexcrypto

$BTCUSD - Bearish to 8,350 or breaking ATH to 12,700?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
BTC             USD has slowed its rally to new ATH             and is consolidating nicely in the 11,000 area.

Indicators show multiple divergences with bearish bias. Also a rising wedge pattern with bearish inversion tendencies has developed.

We are now sitting at the bottom of the trendline forming the wedge and showing signs of topping.

Bullish scenario
Fundamentals, however, show a different story, with CME , Cboe             and Nasdaq starting futures trading in the following weeks.
This has the potential to keep pushing the price to new ATH             with a projection to 12,700 as per my previous analysis.

Bearish scenario
Looking just at the technicals we have major probabilities to see a dowward correction of around 30% where we find strong support at previous levels of 8350 dollars

Since the start of the wedge formation:

- PPO is showing bearish divergence
- Stoch RSI is showing an oversold condition leading us a to a slight push upwards before a wedge breakout
- RSI has a bearish divergence
- CCI showing a bearish divergence and bounce from the upper channel downwards
- MACD has a quite clear double top bearish divergence

Targets are as follows:

TP1 at 9,500 dollars around -18%
TP2 at 8,350 dollars around -27%

Stops can be placed just over ATH             just beyond 12,000 (according to your risk management and appetite) as it invalidates the pattern and a continuation to 12,700 will be likely.

Trade safe.
评论:
This is the turning point. Keep a good eye on it for the direction.
交易开始
交易结束:到达目标: Congratulations to everyone that managed to play this trade.
Trade active as in you're shorting it here? I hope so, I got caught at $10k and this is getting painful....this was where I put my stops.
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@Tfalwell, As per the analysis, for a bullish configuration, the entry was above the 11820 Resistance line. There was absolutely no criteria to short as there was no solid breakout of the wedge downwards.
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Tfalwell alexcrypto
@alexcrypto, You're right, I got caught. Now just looking for an exit. Hopefully this exhausts. If not I'll just take a sizable loss. Any advice would be appreciated...haven't been caught like this in a long time.
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@Tfalwell, DIfficult to tell where it will end, as per my projection it should end around 12,700 dollars (however, it might push higher). I would exit as soon as there is a retrace on a fibonacci from the start of the upside movement. Unfortunately also fundamentals will keep pushing the price higher. If you have enough margin, according to your risk management you could wait for a correction but it might be minimal and cutting your losses early could be a better plan. Good Luck.
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bitcoin only goes up, never corrects anymore, it's just up from now on it looks like no matter what any indicator says
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cold day in hell before it ever hits 8xxx lol, it's EASY MONEY, it just goes up up up up up, no need for charts and graphs just put your $$ in and watch it explode!!!
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@rlreecer, enjoy ;)
+1 回复
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