in my latest post I described that we did not see a bullish impulse yet for Bitcoin. Does that mean it can't go higher? No it does not mean that, It means that the probability of a move higher is low and if we move higher it will most likely be a messy move before it comes back down.
Sometimes it is just better to wait for the good set-ups instead of wasting time trading an instrument that does not move. I like to see the previous low taken out before Bitcoin can make another attempt to move higher. I always trade IF=THEN and only what's best. Keep in mind that there are a lot of instruments out there and we don't have to chase a trade. If you like to trade Bitcoin, the approach remains the same and don't forget to manage it on the lower time frames till things start to really move again.
Have a nice weekend and in my weekly video, which I will record during the weekend, I will update Bitcoin as well.
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For those who are looking for a short term buy before taking out the previous low; the following structure is what I would be looking for if you like to buy Bitcoin. The reason: IF we move higher from here you might very well get stuck in a sideways move and then take out the low. The probability is just not good enough for me at this very moment. Hope this makes sense. I'm very disciplined in my trading so keep that in mind when reading my posts. There is no such thing as missing a trade when you follow a rationalize trade plan.
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I uploaded my Weekly outlook; Dollar pairs, Silver, Gold & Bitcoin to my YouTube channel (Tim Stuyts). Safe trades!
@hi108, I've to say that because Bitcoin is such a new instrument, I do not have enough data for short term market dynamic. So what I do and what I suggest other traders to do is simply adjust to the market. That means that we want to see a reveral by means of the minimum requirements of a bullish impulse (this most likely will be on the 1 hour chart). That will correct and then we buy the continuation which will confirm the bottom. For Forex this is different because in Forex we are dealing with one currency vs another and Central banks that interfere. I know how they interfere so I can turn that in my advantage and look for tops and bottoms. I might sound boring but I focus on what I know till I have enough data to expand my knowledge. Up to that moment I can give 'likely' levels but that is still assuming and that is not something that helps a trader.
hi108
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@TimStuyts, Tim good thinking, thank you. We will wait. Please update when its buy time;)
nummus
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Tim, thank you for your analysis. What do you make of the significant volume that accompanied the today's dip? Wouldn't this suggest that there is a strong support at the 10.500 level and that we could expect an upward movement at least in the short term?
TimStuyts
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@nummus, volume itself doesn't really matter to me. There are several ways to explain it but always after the fact. I do not use it in my trading so can't really give you an answer. Sorry.