I re-publish this idea because the original one was made invisible for having links to my social media. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hello guys, I am back. Hope you are doing well in this bearish market.
It still makes me laugh whenever I recall that people were enthusiastically calling for 50k bitcoin EOY in Jan. And now getting close to the EOY we are still struggling to stay above 6k.
Anyway, after testing 6k support level five times, bitcoin does show some signs suggesting that we may have already hit the bottom.
1. RSI shows hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart. And BTC made a higher low after that, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
2. The structure BTC is building right now is the fractal of the bottom we hit at end of March.
3. The total market cap chart has formed a falling wedge. And we just broke out from it thanks to the XRP explosion and alts rally. Today we are undergoing a correction to retest the upper trend line of the falling wedge. (see it here tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/global-charts/)
4. The number of transactions processed by the Bitcoin blockchain per day is growing slowly and nicely since March, suggesting the increasing adoption of bitcoin. (see it here bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-sma7.html
With these good signs, I expect the crypto market to have another rally in October like the one we had in April. A breakout upward with good volume to 7200+ will be a confirmation of the trend reversal. Let us hope for the best.
However, this idea would be invalidated if BTC broke 6k. Let us prepare for the worst.
Hey, welcome back, man! I appreciate your analysis!
I am not trading anymore, feeling despondent and accumulating as much as I can and checking back here infrequently.
And now all of a sudden accidentally I came across your first idea for almost half a year. It is a sign.
Take care, bro!
Callmepope
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@nakov, staying out is a very good strategy in a bearish market. I'd say you have outrun 90% of traders here by doing no trade at all :D
Hopefully, we will have a good bullrun soon in Oct. and Nov. I have accumulated some recently and will buy more only after seeing a good green candle as confirmation. Hope we all make some good money soon! Cheers!
silmaril0875
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I think it's clear that BTC is in a very large descending triangle which 75% of the time means we going down. So I only see a 25% possibility of us going up from here which is very low.
Callmepope
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@silmaril0875, I get your point and I recognize the descending triangle too. This idea would be invalidated if BTC broke and closed below 6k. Before that, opening long position above 6k has pretty good profit/loss ratio.
Bullion_Money
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@Callmepope, u can call it invallid now. Its not happening this year (btc high).
CoinedByCrypto
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Nice fractal finding... and chart. We see the same or if lower low a sudden drop for the 4.200 level and then a moonshot. But so far I agreed!
Callmepope
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@wallstscalper, hope for the best and prepare for the worst :D