-Rising is typically
-Bitcoin overextended on all large time frames
Why I think it's right:
-Fundamentals (institutional buying)
-Lots of dumb money will chase the price and buy into the FOMO
-Lines up with the death of the clown show known as Segwit2X (not saying they won't go through with it, but the market will realize that bitcoin has effectively survived every attack thrown at it, and all uncertainty about the one true bitcoin being dethroned will be removed)
Then we look for a huge A-B-C correction after all the dumb money buys the top. Sorry for the messy charts, but they are primarily for me. If they help you I'm also happy.
Can evaluate as we go, but the idea here is much, much higher prices. Again traditional technical analysis would probably disagree with this, but things can get crazy in bitcoin.
Will publish a new chart.
Where I'm a bit skeptical is that your green leg (3) continues rather than accounting for a real pull back and recapitulation phase. Reasons for my skepticism:
1) The last 3 bull cycles have produced lower highs
2) We're seeing bearish divs on the weekly chart
3) We'd need to double the market cap in 2 months in order to hit targets (according to your chart)
The last 3 cycles have bounced off 0.618 to signal another bull run. I'll be looking for this as a signal to buy back in. If not, we may be heading towards $3k.
I've attached a chart to show my count. Open to thoughts/feedback:
Now, funny thing is, even if we assume that I am right, it can still turn out to be an "expanded flat" as opposed to what i think it is--a "running flat". If it was expanded that would leave room for a big drop perhaps not as low as you have it. And this is why I use EW as a guide hahaha unless the count if pretty clear. But here's the big takeaway: I'm stickign with my analysis until we break the recent low (your red line). So if we break the red line, then I am in full agreement we are going much lower as that would make for a beautiful head and shoulders pattern like we saw on the last major top.
TL;DR if we make new lows then this is all wrong and a head and shoulders pattern ahs confirmed...but I'm not expecting that to happen. THanks for your comment.
I also agree that the red line at 0.236 is sturdy confirmation extended C leg down to at least $5100.
Right now at $6100 after the wedge and blood letting short squeeze, it's difficult to know if we're going to see $5400.
But I have to say something about this last rally fells... well... off.
FYI destination the same but slight change to my count: