There was a interesting pump yesterday from 9.3K due to how the 15m, 30m and 1H MACD performed a cross up at the same time, causing all the bots to buy in together. That bounce from $9.3k was expected to some degree but it really weren't expected to go that high. So now it is rather confusing whether wave 4 ended there and 5 started (assuming it was not an ABC climb).
I am still bearish due to the bearish divergence on the higher timeframe, and I really don't see the overall trend changing after yesterday's pump. So... that makes it a bull trap imo since neither 123 nor ABC appears to have completed and there are alot more rooms to go down. Also, once $8.7k breaks (which is very likely) there is pretty much no support all the way to $6.5k so... the impulse wave 12345 down for the bear market scenario is still valid. BTC needs to clear above $10800 to be considered bullish. But we are going to see to pullback now from the pump and see where this leads us exactly, similar to the Jan 20th pump.
I am still bearish due to the bearish divergence on the higher timeframe, and I really don't see the overall trend changing after yesterday's pump. So... that makes it a bull trap imo since neither 123 nor ABC appears to have completed and there are alot more rooms to go down. Also, once $8.7k breaks (which is very likely) there is pretty much no support all the way to $6.5k so... the impulse wave 12345 down for the bear market scenario is still valid. BTC needs to clear above $10800 to be considered bullish. But we are going to see to pullback now from the pump and see where this leads us exactly, similar to the Jan 20th pump.
- If you are looking for a long, you might want to wait for it to break above $10800, then wait for a pullback to be supported before making an entry.
- If you are looking for a short, a break of $10100 / reject from $10300 could serve as confirmation. If $9500 breaks, you can consider keeping the short open for a swing.
评论:
Well this short turn out a little too north, and the flag broke upwards. My limit orders were hit so now my short sits at $10535 and I will add one more if this goes to test $10800. (Potential peak for wave 2) Playing with fire maybe, not recommended for the faint heart.
From a bull perspective, this looks like a promising moon once we break above $10,800. Currently, price is sitting at the major downtrend line, peaking above and trying to confirm a support.
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From a bull perspective, this looks like a promising moon once we break above $10,800. Currently, price is sitting at the major downtrend line, peaking above and trying to confirm a support.
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/n/N2h4xmvi.png
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If we break above $10800... we can probably hit $11200 to complete sub wave 1 (Wave 5) Then a pullback for hm.. sub wave 2 to $10400. But if we fail to break $10800, then down sharp all the way hard to 8K (Wave 3 down)> That's the game plan in my mind.
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That gamble paid off. Price peaked at $10890 and my short at $10800 was triggered, bringing me up to $10711. This is how I recovered when I screw up on a bad trade with pivot points =)
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Tentative support is set at $10400 and $9800 since $10650 broke and we are strongly below the major downtrend line again. I won't be updating this idea anymore, but I hope you learnt the importance of confirmation and price targets.
If I feel a reversal is in place, I might create a new idea for long. But you should know me from the chat room. I'm still carrying a $2.5k BTC price tag.
If I feel a reversal is in place, I might create a new idea for long. But you should know me from the chat room. I'm still carrying a $2.5k BTC price tag.
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