Currently we have just finished a major market bull move (2-1200) and its subsequent bear move correction (1200-150). No new lows for 9 months. The bear market is over.
Now we are in a quiet, flat period of quiet. Quite similar to that of April 2012, not only in price action but more importantly in popular sentiment. Bubble fever is emotionally dead, people at Bitcoin meets and conferences no longer gush excitedly about financial success.
Fractal self-similarity shows that if this is indeed 2012 deja-vu, the future price path shall take us to $600 within 1 year (wave 1), $13000 within 2 years (wave 3) and possible wave 5 extensions after that.
Recall my previous Elliot Wave possibility of 120k.
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Update: Price is following the prediction very nicely.
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639 USD, the prediction has been followed very closely to this point.
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Incredible profits from this trade. Spent a bunch partying in the French Riviera and Monaco. Hopefully you all had similar success.
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Elliot wavecount update.
As time passes the chart reveals further information. Allows a more accurate measurement.
Measurement of price and time ratios, logarithmically, of Wave 1:Wave I, Wave 2:Wave II, Wave 3:Wave III and so on, as well as measurement of price and time ratios of Wave i:1, ii:2, iii:3, and i:I, ii:II, iii:III, all come to a convergent conclusion.
We just finished wave 1 of III, and are currently in wave 2 of III. Locate the previous instances of wave ii of 3 for possible structure. Clearest examples include November 2010, August 2011, June 2016. That is, a shallow correction of the rally, followed by a low volatility multimonth consolidation with slightly higher lows. A proportional target would be $1800 today, but don't bet on it. It might bottom much higher.
After this multimonth shallow bear trend is over, we continue to wave 3 of III, similar structure to historical iii of 3. Analogous movements in the past would include January-April 2013: The great $266 bubble. As this movement begins and validates this wavecount, Gentlemen put on your space suits, we are going on LUNAR EXPEDITION.
Using BTC-e unmanipulated price and time measurements, I announce these calculations, proportional to time and price ratios. Today we are in wave 2 of III.
Wave 2 of III bottom: 1800 or above. Will be multimonth.
Wave 3 of III top: 9001. Will be multiyear.
Wave 4 of III: Too early to call
Wave 5 of III: This may fulfill the prophecy of $40000, or even $130000 directly if this wave 5 extends to pure euphoria. Possible, with insititutional investors like Goldman Sachs joining the party.
Wave IV: This would be analogous to the April-July 2013 period post-bubble. Extremely fast crash, emotional capitulation within months. And it's all over quickly, with most participants sold out. Many will await lower buy targets that never get filled, not realizing wave V is already underway.
Wave V: This is it, the mother of all moon rockets, Andromeda Probe, the Supermassive Black Hole Timespace Continuum E=mc2 Universe Annihilator, Analogous to the $1200 rally of 2013 but bigger, faster, and more aggressive. This is when it happens, this is when BTC and GOLD can flip, this is when BTC can become a reserve currency, and 130k may be too modest a prediction. But even magic is eventually grounded in reality, and EW extrapolation calculates 130k.
Bitcoin_vanka's similar analysis:
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Two analysis were posted by other EW counters, both of which draw corroborating conclusions.
The legendary Bitcoin_vanga, Masterluc (bitcointalk), Pentar_Hudi(tradingview), he famously sold at $223 at the $266 bubble, and $1100 at the $1200 bubble. He predicted the multiyear bear in 2014 to the protest of all other traders. vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
Brilliant analysis. This is exactly the way that I like to look at markets and trends. Sentiment combined with price action. Well done. Great call.
rivet.popper
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Do you really think people will pay up to 100K per coin? I'm not saying it's impossible, just wondering what your TAM analysis would say.
findftp
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They'll just buy fractions.
rivet.popper
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True. Kinda like a stock split I guess.
findftp
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Remember, 1 bitcoin is just an illusion. The protocol at it's base works with satohis which are 1/100000000th of a bitcoin. So, for 1 dollar you can currently buy 240000 satoshis. Still ultra cheap.
ZimriLeijen
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they'll have to. Don't forget, if bitcoin is used by everyone in the world, there's only 0.003 bitcoin for each person on average. Even if we assume only 10% of the world will use bitcoin, there's still only 0.03 per person on average. Don't count in bitcoin, count in millibitcoin. Better yet, count in microbitcoin.
SunnyMorning
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well done analysis. I also hold all my bitcoins. I will be selling them in 2020 for $20,000 or maybe $200,000