Going to write about a theory i have on what might have been going on the past 9 months. I have talked about similar things a few times in educational posts, saying that financial markets are NOT here for us, they are here for the brokers and banks to get commission fees and intrest (funding) from leveraged traders. Just like:
Casino's: house always wins on the long term. Sports betting: House always wins because most don't have the patience to wait for the good games and gamble preferably 24/7 (just like trading). (online) Poker rooms, taking a percentage (rake) from each played pot (just like brokers/exchanges, guaranteed and no risk). Sometimes doing giveaways and special things to keep the intrest of the players/gamblers/traders alive ;)
So those are not around for the gamblers/players/traders to make money. They also don't want them too loose everything, they want them to always be able to play and as long as possible to keep everything alive. Think most people have gambled at least a few times in their life and we all know the saying, beginners luck. It's as if a casino has a special radar to spot a first timer and letting them win the first time. Why? Because once you taste an easy win, you can never go back. Wise people eventually know when to quit gambling before things get out of hand. Others can never let go of that winning feeling and always hope (maybe even pray) that it will come back again (FOMO).
Now back to my theory. Think it's safe to say that crypto exchanges had an amazing year in during and since the ATH. With huge volumes all over where they were making big bucks on a daily basis. Since the failed rallies at 8500 and 7400 we can see that volume dropped a lot. The volume candles don't give the correct picture, so i wrote the volumes i remember seeing on average during those periods.
Now i can write my thoughts about what might have happened, but it's a bit too much conspiracy theory ish :). So i rather let you think about it yourself and your more than welcome to share what you think might have been going on. Of course eventually i will post my theory on this part as well later on. Only part i will say upfront, during the 3K zone, almost everyone thought Bitcoin was dead and many even started to feel as if, maybe, just maybe it was just one big hoax all along. What is general sentiment now?
Oh and before i forget, the Bitfinex/Tether (this one is maybe a bit far fetched) and the Binance hack that happened back at the 5k. Mentioned it back then as well, because we never saw any follow through on that news. Felt like it was being used to eventually short squeeze people who shorted on that news.
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This market is pure cancer and big players are getting desperate for cash. Too long have they been out of new money, authorities and real institutions are closing in. They don't not have time or the patience to slowly build investors confidence. That's what wallstreet and big institutions do. Build markets slowly so the can earn unsuspectedly a lot more over longer time. Cashing out all the time on a huge userbase proping up the value by holding stock.
2017 vs now? I dint see any FOMO in retail investors or side money now. Nobody is buying except scalpers, bots and whale funds playing buy my bag to prop up the price.
There is no new money or little of it. As soon as it becomes clear FOMO attempt is not working this time around it will pop hard.
Retail waited to buy low, but was to scared to do so. They sure as hell won't FOMO at 12k to be burned again...
dkfinkbone
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@Trendbeat, agree with the sentiment / fact that no new money is coming in. The alts are haemorrhaging money into BTC. Market cap is an illusion.
dma90210
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@dkfinkbone, current BTC price is an illusion too, with no real fundamentals to back it. will probably pop once joe blow realizs that and stops FOMOing.
majic92
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@Trendbeat, this market will go down that it at 30, 50 or 100K because holders want just pump it and wait the big profit, like a spider weaving his web but who does not catch anything because the wind plays against him.
crypto is a tools for build a new economie, not money backed on donkey gang.
BDG
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You said " Only part i will say upfront, during the 3K zone, almost everyone thought Bitcoin was dead and many even started to feel as if, maybe, just maybe it was just one big hoax all along. What is general sentiment now? "
These incorrect market sentiments at key turning points is not a coincidence. I believe the whales (or "The Man" who employs the whales) have cohorts writing stories on crypto to FOMO us in when we are approaching the top. FOMO'ing is like chumming the water to make the fish appear, in order for the fish to come to you so they are easier to catch. It is much less work for the fisherman to attract a dozen fish than to hunt down each one. (Yeah, we're the fish soon to be on their dinner plate for supper.) When enough fish are within reach, they drop the boom (price) and we are caught.
These paid writers (propagandists) will also spread fear when the market has bottomed in order to get us to panic sell. These stories will appear on the mainstream media, popular trading sites, and on social media sites like FB, Twitter and YT videos.
Why do I say this? Because the whales cannot control the market without first controlling the minds of the traders. It was Siggy's nephew Edward Bernays who was the smart one in the family. He wrote the books Crystallizing Public Opinion (1923) and Propaganda (1928) that demonstrated how a few people can manipulate the minds of the many. Once those in charge can manipulate the people into thinking up is down, and white is black, then you can herd them into any direction you like. It is similar to using a border collie to move the sheep where you want them to go. The border collie is of course the media and they are the obedient servant of "The Man". Without the paid media shills, the whales would not be as nearly as effective as they are. By getting us to think and act as a group, they are able to cull the herd with a lot less effort than doing it one at a time.
@BDG, Yes indeed, i agree with what you say. In 2018 it was too many times so obvious even. During the bounces up from the 6K in first half year of 2018, half way and at the highs all those messages of 20k and 100k were popping up again only to see bearish messages close to the lows again. I don't like to be a conspiracy guy, but dont think anyone can ignore that pattern. We saw the same crap at the 3K and past month once again as well. Think most underestimate how extreme this can be
kardia
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There is no stopping this thing. I believe we are going to see 20k early July and possibly 100k by the end of the year or early 2020.
serhan
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That’s exactly my point. I don’t see any volume to make this trend a healthy rally. There were just not enough time to accumulate either. The only logical explanation to this trend is binance. They’re doing it to lure more people into the market so they can make money, it’s that simple. Faking their %80 of their volume, I can’t see any other competetion in the area.
majic92
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@serhan, whales pump, usdt wash trading, bitfinex have still hit.
2017 vs now? I dint see any FOMO in retail investors or side money now. Nobody is buying except scalpers, bots and whale funds playing buy my bag to prop up the price.
There is no new money or little of it. As soon as it becomes clear FOMO attempt is not working this time around it will pop hard.
Retail waited to buy low, but was to scared to do so. They sure as hell won't FOMO at 12k to be burned again...