JoshThomas04

BTC - Elliott Wave Count - End of Wave IV?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
After the mid-December sell off, Bitcoin             has been desecrated all over the media and has pushed the price down to levels from last November. Considering where we were this time last year, this is still a great place for us to be and us Crypto Enthusiasts know that Bitcoin             is here to stay, and its technology can change the world. For this reason, I think another major bull run is yet to come, which we would then label wave V of the Bitcoin             cycle. So when will this corrective phase end and wave V begin? We can begin to answer this using Elliott's Wave Principle.

As shown in the chart above, we bottomed out around the beginning of wave 4 of wave III             which is typical according to EW theory. We also bounced back off the highest volume that we've seen since the end of 2015. So the bulls have come back with some pressure to keep the crypto boat afloat however we are not in the clear yet.

According to my count, we have completed wave Y of the corrective wave IV. Now, this could be the end of the corrective phase if we can continue to push through the resistance lines and our ATH             . Unless we hear a string of really positive news, I don't think we can push through the ATH             without correcting for a little while longer. I have drawn out a possible triple combination corrective wave which ends back around $5500 which I think is most likely.

I am so cautious when getting back into the market as corrections are the hardest patterns to predict. I only have my core portfolio of coins and I'm also making quick small trades where I see opportunity. When we have clear signs of a major bull run then I am willing to risk more.

Thanks for reading everyone! please leave a comment/feedback below. Would love to know what you guys think about my wave count!
评论: Ignore the time frame I've put on Wave X and Wave Z. I am not forecasting the dates, only indicating the price they could travel to.
评论: From the initial idea, I thought we would wave (B) would dip further. Instead it looks like it created the first wave of another leg up as shown below.

Considering this, I think we have two most likely paths. Whatever happens I think we need to complete a wave 5 according to my count. We could then extend the bull run further into a double Zig-Zag correction (drawn out in yellow) or we could be nearing the end of the run now (drawn out in green).

If we do follow the yellow line then watch for the bull trap!!!

评论: Hold on to your seatbelts, it looks like we could be headed to $6K again or even lower! Let's keep an eye on $8100 and $7200 levels for a reversal sign. These are potential reversal areas but by no means definite. I'm going to let the market do its thing before I jump in too early. Nobody wants to try and catch a falling knife.