61.8% to 78.6 fibo level zone extended from 1st wave of correction from all time highs provides clear positive risk: reward play for a downside correction
Short limit entries above spot prices (previous posts - preferably near theextended 78.6 fibo level short BTC at around $18,035)
Stops above all time highs and just below the next big figure at $20099
Final take profit targets adjusted from just above the key $12,500 pivot and $10,900 for half a position each (previous post) to around the 4k level for a r:r opportunity greater of nearly 6:1 unleveraged
@tudemunxd won't happen. At the most it retraces at ~8K to ~10. The most probable retracment is at ~16K.
skoracle
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@tudemunxd, Extreme bullish sentiment in retail trading community coupled with low volume holiday season is an environment which we have seen in the past for BTC to trade back down into 4 figure territory.
tudemunxd
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@skoracl, yep, but there was no halving in those scenarios. I have no dubts that is going to be a pullback maybe to 13-14k, but I don't see Bitcoin at 4k ever again.
Just an opinion, time will tell
skoracle
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@tudemunxd, I've been wrong rougly 40% of the time ...just started posting yesterday and my previous 3 btc shorts hit my targets so percentage and probability wise, I'm due for a stop out. You are right, only time will tell.
skoracle
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@skoracle, The smart play would be for current shorts to cover a third of the position each at 12.5k, maybe even 16k, and 10.9k...leave the remaining third for a potential move to 4k. 8k would be 4 figure territory. At the very least, it'll be interesting to see how the tape plays out in coming weeks and months.
AndrewAnderson
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I don't think we would be seeing lower than 10k ever again. This was it. Lowest I would expect is ~13K.
skoracle
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@AndrewAnderson, Seems most don't see BTCUSD dropping below 10k, this is an extremely contrarian play and I may be wrong but I've had years of experience at desks of a few large US MMs and from my experience...contrarian perspectives against extreme optimism does at the very least offer high risk reward values so being right half time time can result in tremendous returns. Probably heard the experiment of monkey throwing darts on a board littred with different stocks and 50% of the time , the stocks the darts hit were correct. I'm hoping I am a bit more evolved than those monkeys...perhaps not...we shall see.